High impact nor’easter for the NYC metro area starting tonight. A low pressure system has formed southeast of New Orleans and will be tracking along the Carolina coast before moving offshore of NJ. Once over open water, the storm will begin rapidly strengthening (bombogenesis). Recent model runs have come in with a colder scenario, so less mixing in of rain is anticipated near the coast.

Timing

Moderate to heavy snow will overspread the NYC area in the overnight hours tonight. Accumulating snow will impact the morning commute, before a changeover to sleet near the coast and rain over portions of eastern Long Island. Interior regions will continue to see all snow. Precipitation will continue through the day Thursday, transitioning back to all snow for coastal areas overnight before dissipating early Friday morning.

Impact

Periods of snow, heavy at times overnight Wednesday into Thursday. A large-scale snow band(s) is forecast to form over portions of the NYC area, generally west of I-95 across the interior north and west. Areas under this banding feature will easily see snowfall totals over 12″, with snowfall rates up to 1-2″ per hour. Closer to the coast, snowfall totals generally forecast between 6-10″ of snow and sleet. By morning, we can expect around 2-4″ in the city making for a messy commute. Higher amounts north and west. Additional snow/sleet accumulation in the city of 2-4″ during the day, and ending off with 2-4″ overnight Thursday. Some power outages are possible with heavier snowfall on top of ice from previous storms.