Monthly Archives: May 2014

NYC Nowcast – May 10 @ 2:40PM EST

A batch of strong showers with some rumbles of thunder is approaching the NYC area. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, strong to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms may pass through ahead of an advancing cold front. Damaging wind gusts and small hail are the primary threats.

Screen Shot 2014-05-10 at 2.37.04 PM

Otherwise, expect broken clouds to cloudy skies and nice warm afternoon in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. A line of thunderstorms is likely to fire up again later this afternoon into the evening hours as the cold front actually approaches.

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Atmospheric instability is continuing to increase as we are in the warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front. Low level lapse rates and shear profiles are marginally conducive to the growth of some strong to severe thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – May 8, 2014

We have a similar setup as last week that’s bringing overcast and rainy conditions to the region. A warm front well to our south is causing southeasterly/easterly winds off the cold Atlantic to stream in and saturate the atmosphere. Today, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 50s.

Another mature cyclone with areas of precipitation and associated frontal boundaries
Another mature cyclone with areas of precipitation and associated frontal boundaries

Unsettled weather conditions will continue Friday with the approach and passage of the aforementioned warm front. Temperatures will be warmer in the upper 60s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Saturday looks like a warmer copy of Friday, again with the chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day and with increasing chance for precipitation in the evening/night hours as the cold front depicted above makes its way through. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s despite the cloud cover.

Sunday should be the best day of the weekend (just in time for Mother’s Day), with the frontal boundaries having passed over, skies should clear and allow for temperatures to top out near 80 in the city.

Monday the period of good weather continues to start the next work week, with high temperatures again possibly hitting 80 and mostly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – May 2, 2014

It’s been a wild weather week that started with a tornado outbreak across half a dozen states in the South, and torrential rain fall that dropped as much as 2 feet in Florida, and as much as 6-8″ across the Northeast (resulting in incredible scenes like this landslide in Baltimore).

Fortunately, the weather has taken a turn for the better and will remain that way much of the coming week. This weekend is shaping up to be a nice one with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday reaching into the upper 60s to the low 70s across the region. There is a chance on both days of popup showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially in inland areas with better daytime heating.

GFS model output for this coming Wednesday. Note the strong trough out west (dip in the contour lines), and a ridge over our region (bulge towards the north of contour lines)
GFS model upper air (500mb absolute vorticity) output for this coming Wednesday. Note the strong trough out west (dip in the contour lines), and a ridge over our region (bulge towards the north of contour lines). Ridges correspond with high pressure and good weather while troughs denote low pressure and poor weather.

We’re finally turning the corner on warmer spring temperatures as the start to next week Monday-Wednesday will continue to feature high temperatures consistently in the low-mid 60s (about average). Dry and mostly sunny skies should also predominate as a ridge of high pressure (see above) builds in over our region.