Daily Archives: January 1, 2018

NYC Weather Update – Jan 1, 2018

First post of 2018! The main weather headlines for this week will be a (slight) break from the bitter cold, a chance for snow, and then a return to even colder temperatures to end the week. There is some potential for a heavier snow storm on Thursday, but forecast models are at odds on some significant details.

Rest of today – sunny, but bitterly cold with high temperatures only in the upper-teens. With a steady northwest wind around 15 mph, wind chills fall between 0 and -5°F.

Tuesday – warmer and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-20s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures nearing 30°F! Downright balmy compared to the beginning of the week.

Thursday – a complex scenario unfolds relating to a coastal storm anticipated to approach the area. Differences exist between major forecast models that would lead to a significant spread in snowfall totals from this event. The first scenario, and the more likely of the two, depicts a storm further offshore, favoring lighter snow. The second scenario shows one much closer to the coast, resulting in much heavier snow and even mixed precipitation. For now, siding with the more likely scenario that favors lighter snow would see only about an inch in the city. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should warm into the upper-20s.

The GFS model depicts a storm that passes farther offshore, which would lead to a light snowfall event for the city. This is the more likely scenario at this time.
Resulting ensemble forecast snowfall totals from the GFS. The mean here is only about .6″, reflecting the forecast scenario above.
The NAM shows a much more substantial snow event, with the storm passing significantly closer to the coast. The mean of this model calls for snowfall totals of nearly 7″, with a secondary cluster of ensemble members between 16-23″!