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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 26, 2019

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A wet start to the weekend this Friday with multiple rounds of rain moving through. Saturday shapes up to be a better day at least in terms of being dry. A second disturbance/low moves through Sunday bringing yet more chances for rain before skies clear up to start next week. Temperatures behind this second storm/cold front will be below normal for this time of year.

Rest of today – periods of rain during the afternoon as a warm front works its way across the area. Some thunderstorms possible. Second round of more focused/heavier rain later in the evening around 7-8PM as a trailing cold front pushes through. This front will have decent upper level support with some indications of a vorticity maxima at 500 mb and us being in the exit region of a 300 mb jet streak. High temperatures today topping out around the upper-50s even with the rain as we’re expected some time in the warm sector of the low bringing us this stormy weather. If the warm front below fails to push north through here though, we may only see temps in the mid-50s. Overnight lows should bottom out around 50°F.

Weather Prediction Center’s most recent surface analysis, showing a marked warm front south of NYC. Some thunderstorms and showers have popped up ahead of this frontal boundary due to isentropic lift (overrunning) as warm air from the south slides over colder air at the surface further nort
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 8PM tonight showing a line of showers with some thunderstorms possible.

Saturday – with the trailing cold front clearing the area tonight, precipitation should end and Saturday should end up being a decent day though with more clouds than sun. High temperatures should be able to get into the low-60s, edging into the mid-60s if more sun breaks out. Overnight lows noticeably cooler with a colder, drier airmass behind today’s cold front, in the mid-40s.

Sunday – a second low approaches from the Ohio Valley, again bringing some potential for rain. This rain is expected to be on the lighter side. Temperatures should reach into the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monnday – start of next week should be sunny, with Sunday’s storm system moving offshore. High temperatures will be below normal though, with the cold front associated with Sunday’s low bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. High temperatures probably topping out in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Sep 11, 2017

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We will start this week that marks the 16th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks with excellent and seasonably warm temperatures in the low-80s for memorial services today. The pleasant weather should hold up through Thursday before the remnants of Irma begin to move into the region. Looking ahead, some forecast models have hinted that Hurricane Jose poses a possible risk to the East Coast.

Rest of today – pleasant, mild conditions with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s.

Tuesday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures much the same as today in the low-80s. High pressure will be in control of our weather during this period.

Wednesday – clouds begin to build in conjunction with the northward movement of the expansive cloud shield associated with Irma well to the south. This will cause temperatures to dip just a bit to about 80°F.

Thursday –  a touch warmer, mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures in the low-80s.

 

Hurricane Irma and Jose Updates

Residents of Florida’s west coast avoided what looked like it could be a worst case scenario for them. Irma weakened faster than forecast and moved just far enough inland such that the strongest winds of the eye did not hit Tampa. The weaker storm also reduced the risk of serious storm surge. Still, as you’ve probably seen from media reports, damage from the storm is widespread and of varying degrees of severity across the state. The dangers of the storm now move inland, with heavy rain and tropical storm winds into the Southeast.

While Irma spins down over the Southeast, Jose remains a wildcard for the East Coast next week. Several runs of the GFS have suggested a landfall for Jose somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. It’s far too early to know with any degree of certainty whether this scenario will pan out, since a lot of other forecast models show Jose curving out to sea, but it will bear watching.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 8, 2016

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The weekend gave us a mixed bag of weather, with some rain but mostly warm and humid weather. Humidity starts off at a comfortable level this week, but picks up towards mid-week when get a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures during this period will be above average by about 5ºF, though it will not be nearly as hot as a couple weeks ago.

Rest of today – more clouds than sun for the next few hours, but we’re still expected to hit highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 80s.

Wednesday – increased humidity, mostly cloudy with a high in the mid-80s. We will be squeezed between an incoming cold front and a high pressure center in the Atlantic, which will result in a mostly southerly flow of warmer, humid air into the region.

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Thursday – warmer, with highs around 90ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 9, 2014

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This first full week of the new year has featured the coldest temperatures all winter and first noticeable snow accumulations for NYC. This weekend will see a slight warming trend, with some rain possible by Monday. Looking ahead towards the end of next week, we could get hit with a coastal storm, which may bring a mix of precipitation types to the region.

Saturday – strong high pressure builds over the area, so expect a clear day, but still quite cold with highs in the low 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Check out that high pressure over the Ohio Valley at 1036mb
Check out that high pressure over the Ohio Valley at 1036mb

Sunday – as the high pressure area moves east, winds on the backside of the high will shift towards the southwest. This will favor a rebound in temperatures to slightly below seasonal highs in the mid 30s. Cloud cover will also increase ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest.

Monday – the aforementioned broad area of low pressure will pass through on with winds persisting from the southwest. This will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the upper 30s, meaning this will primarily be a rain event, although some mixed precipitation is possible early.

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Tuesday – immediately following this low, temperatures will plunge back into the upper 20s with strong Arctic high pressure moving in behind the low.

NYC Weather – Pre-Thanksgiving Storm Back On

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It’s hard to believe now, with air temperatures still hovering around 60 at this hour on Monday, that by Wednesday, our entire region could be looking at accumulating snow! Over the weekend, it has become clear through progressive model runs that the mid-week storm that on Friday looked like it would miss us, is tracking to hit us on Wednesday, leading to a high impact storm just in time for the busiest travel day of the year. We’re talking the whole package: wind, rain, and snow.

Tuesday – we continue to stay in the warm sector of a low pressure system that will be exiting to our northeast through Quebec. Cloud cover will be minimal and we should see temperatures hold around the 60 degree mark.

Wednesday – a complex weather situation develops as a coastal low that forms offshore of the Georgia/Florida border Tuesday makes its way up the Northeast coast. Temperature profiles seem to be pointing towards a mostly snow event (the first big snow storm for the region). With the cold front pushing through late Tuesday, temperatures Wednesday will likely peak in the morning around 40 and start to drop slowly through the day as precipitation moves in across the area, generally from southwest to northeast. Wind will start to pick up, first from the southeast, then east and gradually becoming northeast between 25-35mph.nam-hires_namer_048_1000_850_thick

The tricky part about this forecast is that there is still enough uncertainty in the storm track for there to be some last minute changes. As it currently stands, the center of the strengthening coast low is forecast to move on top of or just west of the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a scenario that favors a high-impact nor’easter type event for our region. Winter storm watches are already up over much of the interior Northeast. In these areas, we are looking at anywhere from 4-10″+ (depending on where the heaviest band sets up). Along the coast, under the current forecast track and methodology, it is looking like enough rain mixes in during the day Wednesday to keep snow accumulations from topping 5-6″.

Again the storm track could change, and if the track moves slightly to the east, the heavier snow could hit the city, along with some colder air. Regardless, this does not bode well for people who are doing last-minute traveling for Thanksgiving. I would expect widespread flight delays, while traffic conditions on the road could deteriorate quickly especially later in the day with temperatures dropping and snow beginning to stick.

Thursday – Thanksgiving Day itself looks like it will be OK for the parade, and other activities. The coastal storm will have pulled to our northeast, and any lingering effects should clear up early. Temperatures will be around the 40 degree mark in the city, which means that snow which accumulates will not melt all that quickly.

Friday – will be the coldest day of the holiday stretch, with temperatures only in the mid-30s. Areas of snow that have melted during Thursday could re-freeze.

The remainder of the holiday weekend looks good so far, with no major precipitation anticipated until Sunday/Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 30, 2014

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The picture for this weekend is set: a cold, wet, windy Saturday, and an even colder, even windier (though dry) Sunday. For today and Friday, we’ll get decent conditions with temperatures about normal for this time of year.

Thursday – temperatures will hit the upper 50s-around 60 under sunny skies. Enjoy it while you can!

Friday – clouds start to spread over the area and it gets a bit cooler with highs in the mid-upper 50s.

Saturday – a complex interaction between two low pressure systems will make for a tricky forecast Saturday. What is clear is that a cold, arctic airmass will be filtering in from the north. Luckily, it does appear the coldest of the air will arrive after the main portion of the storm exits to the northeast. Also, the track of the storm system will be further out past the 40N 70W benchmark, meaning the worst of the impacts will remain offshore.

This means that there most likely will not be snow, and that the western interior portions of the region will probably not see any significant precipitation. Winds, on the other hand, will strengthen from the north, ushering in a very cold airmass for this time of year. Closer to the coast, we should see rain on what will be a raw, wet, windy, winter-like day. Temperatures will only hit the upper 40s.

Sunday – for the NYC Marathon, it should be a dry, but downright chilly start with overnight lows Saturday hovering in the upper 30s. Combine that with northerly wind gusts of 25-35mph, and we’re looking at wind chills near freezing. Temperatures will not rebound that much during the course of the race, either, as high temperatures are only expected to hit the upper 40s. It’ll be important for runners to warm up properly before getting underway. They will be running with the wind directly in their face for a majority of the race, too.

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Forecast wind gusts for Sunday @ 8AM
Forecast wind gusts for Sunday @ 8AM

Next week, this arctic airmass will depart, we’ll rebound back towards normal temperatures for this time of the year.

High pressure back in control for the first half of next week, allowing for temperatures to rebound back to normal
High pressure back in control for the first half of next week, allowing for temperatures to rebound back to normal

NYC Weather Update – Apr 7, 2014

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Rain will start to pick up this evening, but the heaviest of the precipitation should hold off until the overnight hours. A low pressure center over the Ohio Valley will move northeast into the lower St. Lawrence Valley in Canada.

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GFS model output for 8PM tonight

Meanwhile, a secondary low will bring a warm front through Tuesday – with rain ending early and warm south winds, Tuesday will be a mild day with highs in the mid-60s and gradually clearing skies.

Wednesday and Thursday should both be spring-time gems with high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 and fair conditions.

Our next shot at rain will be Friday into the weekend with a low passing well to our north, but forecast models showing a trailing cold front with precipitation.

NYC Weather – Monday Storm Update, Mar 2, 2014

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Just a quick update on the storm coming in tonight into Monday. Latest forecast models are showing a much drier atmospheric profile and placing the best areas of lift (associated with heavier precipitation) well south of the immediate NYC area.

That being the case, NWS has lowered the forecast totals for NYC to at most 2-4″. Same for Long Island. Trace to a dusting for northern suburbs. The bulk of the heavier snow will stay to our south, over portions of central and southern NJ. See the following graphic which shows probabilities for greater than 4″ through Tuesday morning. NYC is barely in the 30-40% range. Snow should begin falling this evening and last into the early AM rush hour.

Screen shot 2014-03-02 at 4.04.03 PMWith the cold front having passed through today, we’ll see a return to much colder temps, with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the mid-20s. A gradual warmup will take place towards the middle and end of the week, with temps slowly clawing back to freezing, and even potentially topping 40 by Friday (that would still be about 5-6 degrees below normal for this time of year).

Next chance at significant precipitation will be Friday/Saturday with a possible coastal storm I referenced in the last entry.