An eventful week of weather continues into the weekend, though not to the same degree of intensity. We will see another chance for snow, as well as rain this weekend. Temperatures rebound back to around or slightly above normal for the weekend. Looking ahead, there are some signals at another possible strong storm a couple weeks out, but it’s much to early to be certain.
Rest of today – cold, windy, sunny with areas of blowing snow. High temperatures below normal around 30ºF. Wind chills in the teens. Overnight tonight, we could pick up a light coating of fresh snow from a fast moving, and relatively weak storm system.
Below are some reported snowfall totals from yesterday’s coastal storm. As you’ll see, there was a fairly sharp cutoff between areas that received 9″ or more of snow. Long Island, Connecticut, and parts of the Hudson Valley got the largest totals. This was largely due to the fact that the most intense bands of heavy snow spent more time parked over these areas than it did in the city.
Saturday – conditions improving, along with warmer temperatures in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday – another storm system moves in from the Ohio Valley. This will bring a mixture of precipitation to the Northeast. Luckily, with high temperatures in the low-40s, we will see all rain.
Monday – winds pick up behind the departure of the storm system above, and skies should clear up as well. Temperatures should again be in the low-40s.
Weather to start this week will be rather uneventful, predominantly featuring windy, cold days, but little in the way of precipitation. We did get our first dusting of snow so far this winter in the city last night, and the potential for significantly more exists with a possible Nor’easter coming this weekend. As always, even though we’re within a week of this event, our local forecast office is only forecasting with 30% confidence due to the large changes in impact that even small fluctuations in storm track and intensity could bring.
Rest of today – we’ve already hit high temperatures for the day around 30ºF. A tight pressure gradient is causing breezy west winds near 20mph translating to wind chill values in the 10-15ºF range.
Tuesday – basically a repeat of today, but with slightly stronger winds. High temperatures will be in the upper-20s to around 30ºF with west winds in the 20-25mph leading to wind chills in the single digits to low teens under mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures closer to normal in the mid-30s, calmer winds and sunny skies. There could be some flurries Wednesday night with a passing clipper system, but no accumulation is expected in the city.
Thursday – mostly sunny again with high temperatures in the mid-30s.
Possible Nor’easter This Friday – Saturday
Looking ahead towards the end of the week, there is a possibility for the first significant snowfall event in the NYC region thus far this winter. Forecasters are keeping close tabs on the possible formation of a classic Nor’easter towards the end of this week. It is important to stress that even at this point in time, there’s still considerable uncertainty about how this scenario will unfold. A deviation in the track of this coastal low too far north would result in a mainly rain event along the coast, while a deviation too far south would mean significantly less precipitation. If this scenario plays out under optimal conditions, our region would be in the northwest quadrant of this low, an area that favors the development of heavy snow. Even then, as was the case a couple winters ago, slight changes to the track and position of the heaviest snow bands could mean the difference between 5″ of snow or over a foot. Stay tuned for updates.
It’s hard to believe now, with air temperatures still hovering around 60 at this hour on Monday, that by Wednesday, our entire region could be looking at accumulating snow! Over the weekend, it has become clear through progressive model runs that the mid-week storm that on Friday looked like it would miss us, is tracking to hit us on Wednesday, leading to a high impact storm just in time for the busiest travel day of the year. We’re talking the whole package: wind, rain, and snow.
Tuesday – we continue to stay in the warm sector of a low pressure system that will be exiting to our northeast through Quebec. Cloud cover will be minimal and we should see temperatures hold around the 60 degree mark.
Wednesday – a complex weather situation develops as a coastal low that forms offshore of the Georgia/Florida border Tuesday makes its way up the Northeast coast. Temperature profiles seem to be pointing towards a mostly snow event (the first big snow storm for the region). With the cold front pushing through late Tuesday, temperatures Wednesday will likely peak in the morning around 40 and start to drop slowly through the day as precipitation moves in across the area, generally from southwest to northeast. Wind will start to pick up, first from the southeast, then east and gradually becoming northeast between 25-35mph.
The tricky part about this forecast is that there is still enough uncertainty in the storm track for there to be some last minute changes. As it currently stands, the center of the strengthening coast low is forecast to move on top of or just west of the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a scenario that favors a high-impact nor’easter type event for our region. Winter storm watches are already up over much of the interior Northeast. In these areas, we are looking at anywhere from 4-10″+ (depending on where the heaviest band sets up). Along the coast, under the current forecast track and methodology, it is looking like enough rain mixes in during the day Wednesday to keep snow accumulations from topping 5-6″.
Again the storm track could change, and if the track moves slightly to the east, the heavier snow could hit the city, along with some colder air. Regardless, this does not bode well for people who are doing last-minute traveling for Thanksgiving. I would expect widespread flight delays, while traffic conditions on the road could deteriorate quickly especially later in the day with temperatures dropping and snow beginning to stick.
Thursday – Thanksgiving Day itself looks like it will be OK for the parade, and other activities. The coastal storm will have pulled to our northeast, and any lingering effects should clear up early. Temperatures will be around the 40 degree mark in the city, which means that snow which accumulates will not melt all that quickly.
Friday – will be the coldest day of the holiday stretch, with temperatures only in the mid-30s. Areas of snow that have melted during Thursday could re-freeze.
The remainder of the holiday weekend looks good so far, with no major precipitation anticipated until Sunday/Monday.
