Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weekend Weather – May 21, 2021

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A dramatic warm up in store this weekend with highs climbing into the mid-80s and the 90ºF mark. A couple of scattered chances for thunderstorms come with a weak shortwave Saturday and a cold front passing Sunday. This second front will cool things back to seasonable temperatures in the low-70s to start off next week. Yet another warm spell with 90s is taking shape for mid-week next week!

Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s in the city as high pressure remains dominant, cooler at the coast with a sea breeze developing. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Saturday at 8PM. A shortwave with attendant vorticity is visible across Southern New England stretching west-southwest into PA and OH.

Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s as a warm front pushes through. A chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the interior as a shortwave passes later in the day. Overnight lows quite warm, in the upper-60s, could break records for the warmest minimum temperatures for this day.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures warming to the 90ºF mark in the city, possibly warmer. Downsloping northwesterly flow should aid this warmup. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible later in the day with a weak cold front approaching. Overnight lows dropping to the low-60s.

GFS model 2-meter above ground temperature and 10-meter above ground temperature for 2 PM Sunday.

Monday – big difference in temperatures with high temperatures back in the low-70s behind the cold front passing on Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 26, 2021

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Late April jumps into June with temperatures soaring into the 80s by midweek before a storm system approaches. This could bring us chances for rain on Thursday, while also cooling temps back to normal levels (mid-60s) by the end of the week.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy northwest winds around 20 mph. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in mid-40s with winds diminishing as a low pressure center moves off into the Atlantic, relaxing the pressure gradient.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. A warm front will be approaching from the south. Behind this, much warmer air will be flowing clockwise around the high pressure centered off the Southeast coast of the US.

Tuesday – much warmer with high temperatures near 70ºF with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Wednesday – we will be firmly within the warm sector of the next approaching storm, and as a result, we should see temperatures rise well into the low-80s (potentially 15-20ºF above normal). This is in part due to an anomalously warm mid-upper level ridge (see below). Clouds will be on the increase as the next frontal boundary approaches. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for Wednesday at 2PM. We are forecast to see +8ºC anomalies at this level of the atmosphere, corresponding to much above normal temperatures at the surface.

Thursday – the slow moving cold front will start to impact the region with increasing chances for rain. With clouds and rain, temperatures are expected to drop back to the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF with rain chances continuining.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 19, 2021

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A week of contrasts is in store, starting with warm, above average temps in the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday, then rain coming mid-week, caused by a vigorous cold front. Behind this, temperatures will plummet to below normal in the low-50s by Thursday. There are rain chances Monday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms and more substantial chances Wednesday.

Rest of today – starting off sunny, with highs climbing into the mid-60s. Later in the afternoon, clouds develop with a shortwave moving through the area. This mid-level disturbance could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the upper-40s with clearing skies.

HRRR model simulated radar valid for 6 PM this evening. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible especially inland north and west.

Tuesday – best day of the week with high temperatures rising into the low-70s under sunny skies ahead of the incoming storm Wednesday. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Wednesday – rain chances increasing during the day into the overnight hours. High temperatures in the low-60s under mostly cloudy skies. Behind the frontal boundary bringing the rain, strong cold air advection kicks in, dropping lows into the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday. A low pressure center will be progressing through the region bring through a cold front, showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Thursday – sunny in the morning with more clouds developing in the afternoon. With a cold start, high temperatures only hitting the low-50s. Overnight lows dropping to the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 16, 2021

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A steady warming trend takes place this weekend on the heels of a late season snow storm for interior New England. Temperatures will go from below normal in the low-50s to about average for this time of the year in the low-60s. High pressure brings us decent conditions but rain chances are not out of the question Sunday and Monday with some mid-level disturbances possibly bringing some showers.

Rest of today – wraparound moisture from a late-season Nor’easter that’s bringing accumulating snow to interior New England could bring some showers later today. Otherwise partly sunny with high temperatures on the cool side in the low-50s with northwesterly winds keeping a cap on temps. Overnight lows in the low-40s as rain chances die down.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Low pressure off of New England will be pulling to the east, but still close enough to give us some clouds.

Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s. Weak high pressure should keep any rain at bay.

Sunday – mostly cloudy, with high temperatures warming into the low-60s. Slight chance for showers in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Monday at 8AM. A fairly potent area of vorticity (dark purples) associated with a shortwave could bring some showers to the area.

Monday – mostly sunny to start with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Rain chances pick up in the afternoon with diurnally driven showers that could get a boost from some mid-level vorticity. Overnight lows at or slightly below 50ºF.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 29, 2021

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A cool and breezy start to the week with temperatures warming into the 50s and low-60s by midweek. A storm system arrives Wednesday bringing a round of soaking rain. An even colder air mass sweeps in behind this storm with below average highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows going into Friday may dip into the upper-20s.

Rest of today – breezy with with northwesterly winds 20-25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect as a result. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s, but feeling like the mid-40s with the wind chill. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. High pressure will be more directly overhead and ease winds in the region. Warmer flow from the southwest should help temperatures up into low-60s.

Tuesday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s. Much less windy with high pressure more directly overhead. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the low-60s but with mostly cloudy skies. Rain moves in later in the day, and will be moderate and steady. Overnight lows drop considerably to around 40ºF with robust cold air advection behind the cold front bringing this rain.

GFS model 850 mb temperature, height, and winds for 8PM Thursday. Much colder temperatures at this height are forecast. 850 mb temperatures are often a decent proxy for surface temperatures.

Thursday – wraparound moisture with this storm may bring about more showers Thursday morning with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Overnight lows dropping to around 30ºF as skies clear.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 26, 2021

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Possibly record-breaking warmth in the low-70s to start the weekend along with strong winds accompanying the passage of a cold front. This frontal boundary brought an outbreak of violent tornadoes to the South yesterday, but luckily will be rather tame in comparison for our region. Cooler weather will occur behind this cold front but especially behind a second storm system Sunday bringing rain. Temps will drop to the low-50s by the end of the weekend.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the low-70s. Southwesterly winds 15-20 mph picking up later in the afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as skies clear out.

GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures and 10 meter above ground winds. Very warm temperatures in the low to maybe even mid-70s by about 3PM this afternoon.

Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows again in the upper-40s.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with rain developing in the morning and continuing in periods throughout the day. High temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain ending and skies gradually clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday. Low pressure traversing the Great Lakes will bring the potential for a good, soaking rain.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 29, 2020

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Messy weather ahead going into the New Years holiday for NYC. We start with high pressure moving overhead. This then gives way to a frontal system tomorrow night. After a brief lull, another storm, similar in some ways to the Christmas storm comes in Friday. Both these precipitation will be rain in the city. Temperatures during this period will generally be above normal in the 40s, warming into the mid-upper 40s.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures around 40ºF. Clouds will be streaming in from the northwest, originating from the Great Lakes as lake effect snow showers. These clouds will tend to thin out as northwest flow downslopes dries out across the higher terrain north and west of the city. This northwest flow could also result in some strong wind gusts. With strong high pressure forecast to move nearly directly overhead tonight, winds should calm with skies becoming mostly clear. This will favor good radiational cooling, leading to cold overnight lows in the mid-20s.

GOES Geostationary Satellite visible imagery this morning showing clouds streaming off the surface of the Great Lakes towards the East Coast.

Wednesday – partly cloudy with high temperatures again around 40ºF. Overnight, a warm front passes, followed by a cold front. This will result in an increase in temperatures overnight from the mid-30s as well as rain.

Thursday – a mild day despite the passage of the cold front mentioned above, with forecasters noting the air mass behind the front being of milder Pacific origin. High temperatures around 50ºF. Rain chances should diminish quickly after the morning passage of the cold front. The respite will not last too long as the next storm system follows up quickly. Overnight temperatures dropping into the low-30s.

  • ECMWF “Euro” model 24 hour quantitative precipitation forecast ending 7AM Saturday, about .70″.
  • GFS model 24 hour quantitative precipitation forecast ending 7AM Saturday, close to 1″.

Friday – high temperatures in the mid-40s with another storm system approaching. Rain chances increase going into the overnight hours. This storm, like the Christmas storm, is expected to deliver some moderate to heavy rain. However, since it’s forecast to be weaker overall, the winds and precipitation totals shouldn’t be nearly as robust as the last storm. Overnight should shape up to be similar to Wednesday, where temperatures may actually increase into the upper-40s with the passage of a warm front and corresponding warm air advection.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 11, 2020

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A mostly sunny start to the weekend gives way to rain Saturday as a storm center passes north of us. A warm front pushes through then becomes stationary, allowing for a period of mild temperatures and light rain. The mild weather lasts through Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s possible before a cold front sweeps through to start next week. Another storm passing off to our south cloud clip the region with rain Monday. Looking ahead, there’s potential for a coastal storm next week that could bring some snow/wintry precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with clouds on the increase later, high temperatures in the low-50s with southwesterly winds circulating as a high pressure center slides off to the southeast. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with fog possible as moisture increases ahead of the next storm.

GFS model 10 meter above ground winds and surface pressure at 1PM Saturday. Note that winds will continue to be southerly, bringing us some milder air in stark contrast to the chilly weather earlier this past week.

Saturday – high temperatures in the mid-50s with warm, southerly winds continuing. Periods of showers likely especially during the afternoon, though a dry slot may work in and put a pause on rain before another round possibly overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-50s, barely budging due to the ongoing moderating influence of southerly winds.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Sunday.

Sunday – high temperatures rising potentially into the upper-50s ahead of the cold front accompanying this storm. Rain should end in the morning and give way to a partly sunny afternoon. Overnight lows dropping quite a bit into the low-40s behind the cold front.

Monday – high temperatures in the upper-40s with the chance for showers as a weak low passes off to our south. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Coastal storm possible next week

GFS model runs suggest the possibility of a coastal storm that could bring some accumulating snow to the area mid-week next week. It’s far too early to tell if this scenario will pan out, as Euro models depict a warmer solution that would result in rain at the coast. We’ll see how subsequent model runs come together. Without a deep reservoir of cold air to draw on ahead of the storm, significant snowfall is less likely.

GFS model 24 hour snowfall accumulation ending 7AM next Thursday, with 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Decent totals shown here are not a sure thing, especially this far out from the event.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 7, 2020

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A week of contrasts is in store for us with colder than average temps in the low-40s to start things off. However, a warming trend will take hold as a more zonal flow evolves at the upper levels, moderating heights and temperatures. This will result in milder conditions later on in the low-50s.High pressure and dry northerly flow should keep things rain-free until closer to the weekend.

Rest of today – below normal high temperatures around 40ºF with increasing clouds as a low pressure center passes well off to our southeast over the Atlantic. The presence of this storm offshore will result in persistent northerly winds, though less potent than over the weekend. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Monday. Note the presence of a low pressure center east of North Carolina.

Tuesday – high pressure briefly builds in and provides a mostly sunny day but with temperatures still only peaking around 40ºF. Overnight lows again in the low-30s.

Wednesday – high temperature start to rebound towards normal in the mid-40s with partly sunny skies as a storm passes well to our north, and we end up in the storm’s warm sector. Overnight lows drop into the upper-30s.

GFS model 500 mb temperature, height and winds forecast for 1PM Thursday. Flow at this level is forecast to become more zonal (flatter) than earlier this week.

Thursday – temperatures jump into the low-50s with sunny skies as high pressure briefly moves in again and upper level flow starts to flatten out resulting in the colder air mass in place to start the week getting pushed north. Overnight lows in upper-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 20, 2020

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We’ll see warmer than average temperatures around 60ºF to start the weekend before a cool off into the 50s Sunday. Temperatures rise again Monday into the upper-50s with a warm front approaching, then cold front bringing a chance of rain. Looking ahead at Thanksgiving temperatures seem like they should be mild we may see some rain in NYC.

Rest of today – sunny with highs generally in the upper-50s to near 60ºF. High pressure south of the region will lead to southwesterly flow that will bring us these mild temperatures. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Saturday – a cold front is forecast to move through during the day, however, this front should be deprived of any significant moisture. Temperatures should remain mild in the upper-50s to around 60ºF once again. It won’t be until the overnight hours when temperatures start to drop in response to the cold front passage, with winds turning towards the north and lows falling into the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday, showing a cold front approaching from the northwest.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures cooling off to around 50ºF. A warm front approaching from the southwest should stabilize temperatures and prevent much of a change overnight with lows barely budging in the upper-40s. The warm front, then a cold front following on its heels should bring us a round of showers.

Monday – rain diminishing early on. High temperatures in the upper-50s occurring early in the day prior to the cold front passage. Temperatures dropping steadily during the day after this into the 40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Looking ahead at Thanksgiving, there could be some rain coming our way though temperatures appear like they should be on the mild side.

GFS model 500 mb vorticity and height forecast for 7AM Thursday. A closed upper low over the Ohio valley is evident with lots of accompanying vorticity. Should this scenario actualize, we would expect to see some showers in our area during the day Thursday.