Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weather Update – Nov 16, 2020

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What a big contrast in sensible weather this week vs. last! We were looking at record-breaking warmth in the upper-70s this time last week. Now, in the wake of a strong cold front and severe storms yesterday, temperatures cool off into the low-50s to start the week. A reinforcing cold front and high pressure brings much below normal highs only in the low-40s mid-week. A round of quick snow showers is possible going into Tuesday morning!

Rest of today – seasonably cool with westerly winds starting to die down. Sunny with high temperatures around 50ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Tuesday

Tuesday – clouds increasing as a cold front moves in from the northwest. High temperatures steady in the upper-40s. Chance of rain then rain and snow overnight. Overnight lows below average in the low-30s.

Wednesday – due to a cold start, and high pressure to the southwest, northwesterly winds will keep things cold on Wednesday with highs only around 40ºF despite sunny skies. Overnight lows drop into the low-30s.

Thursday – temperatures increase to the upper-40s with sunny skies. Overnight lows warming into the low-40s.

Hurricane Iota – A Major Disaster for Central America

A catastrophic disaster could be unfolding for Nicaragua and Honduras, in the same regions that were pummeled by Hurricane Eta barely two weeks ago. Hurricane Iota appears to be on its way to becoming a rare November Category 5 storm, and is looking very impressive on satellite images this morning. The torrential rain this storm brings could result in landslides, and inland flooding, exacerbated by soil that’s still quite damp from Eta’s onslaught. With recovery efforts ongoing, and people still without permanent shelter, Iota could be a major, life-threatening storm for this area.

GFS model 850 mb relative humidity and winds at 1AM Thursday, depicting some decently fast winds and ample moisture accompanying the cold front.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 9, 2020

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The week starts with possible record breaking warmth carrying over from the weekend. Record high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s were set at several locations in the region yesterday. More records could fall today with highs in the mid-70s again. A general cooling trend takes place this week with highs eventually dropping back to seasonable levels in the upper-50s. A cold front mid-week with good moisture will bring a drenching rain Wednesday into Thursday.

Rest of today – very warm with possibly record breaking temperatures in the mid-70s once again under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with patchy fog possible.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Tuesday

Tuesday – temperatures cool off a bit but still quite warm in the upper-60s to near 70ºF with more clouds. Overnight lows quite mild in the low-60s.

Wednesday (Veteran’s Day) – increasing clouds but still warm with high temperatures approaching 70ºF. A vigorous cold front will be moving in from the west. Rain chances increase through the afternoon. Most of the rain should occur overnight with good moisture content accompanying this front. Overnight lows in only dropping into the mid-60s with warm, southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage.

GFS model 850 mb relative humidity and winds at 1AM Thursday, depicting some decently fast winds and ample moisture accompanying the cold front.

Thursday – high temperatures occur early in the day prior to the passage of the cold front. Rain should subside as soon as the front passes. Behind the front, winds turn to the west and bring in a cooler, drier air mass. Temperatures should drop through the day with overnight lows bottoming out around 50ºF.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 2, 2020

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A cold, windy start to the week will give way to a marked warming trend. Today and tomorrow, strong winds are likely, and the west-northwest direction of these winds will promote below normal temperatures in the mid-40s and low-50s. Beginning mid-week, warm, southwesterly return flow developing around a couple high pressure centers will induce temperatures to rise into the 60s, closing in possibly on 70ºF by this weekend. This 10-15ºF above normal warmth looks set to continue into the weekend and possibly early next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with clouds diminishing towards the evening. Highs much colder than normal in the mid-40s with cold air advection still influencing our sensible weather due to strong west-northwesterly winds sustained at 25-30 mph gusting to possibly 40-50 mph early. This is all due to the tight pressure gradient between a deepening low tracking over the Canadian Maritimes and a high pressure center further south. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Tuesday – a secondary cold front pushes through early, possibly touching off a few showers in the morning. Winds still breezy, but not as strong as today. Mostly sunny skies with highs around 50ºF. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

Wednesday – sunny skies with southwesterly winds developing as high pressure builds northeast of us. This will allow for a much warmer day with highs around normal, near 60ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.

Thursday – high temperatures continue trending up into the mid-60s with southerly winds and plenty of sun. Overnight lows in the low-50s. The warming trend continues into the weekend where we could see mid to upper-60s.

  • GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies for 1PM Saturday. Very warm air will be in place over the region.
  • Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 outlook for temperature trends suggests a high probability warmer than average temperatures continue into early next week.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 16, 2020

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A slow-moving cold front will bring rain to start the weekend from today into Saturday morning as several waves of low pressure move along this frontal boundary. Much colder air sweeps in behind this cold front with highs around 60ºF Saturday as high pressure builds with skies clearing. Overnight lows in outlying suburbs may be close to freezing, with frost developing. High pressure remains in place into early next week, maintaining dry weather. With the position of the high moving to the northeast, some warmer southerly return flow should help temperatures rebound into the mid-60s.

Rest of today – cloudy, with periods of rain, moderate at times. High temperatures peaking early in the day in the low-60s, dropping through the day. Overnight lows cooling off into the mid-40s as rain continues until perhaps 1-2am.

GOES geocolor visible satellite imagery of the Northeast this morning. Extensive cloudiness and some vertical development is apparent along a cold front that will impact the region Friday into Saturday.

Saturday – rain ending early. Gradual clearing with high temperatures cooler, around 60ºF. Overnight lows again on the cool side, in the mid-40s under mostly clear skies.

Sunday – high temperatures rebound a little into the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies with warmer southerly return flow developing as high pressure moves to the northeast. Overnight lows likewise warming into the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, showing high pressure anchored over the Northeast.

Monday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 13, 2020

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Rainy, cloudy conditions early today start giving way to high pressure as the low pressure offshore, remnant moisture from remnants of Delta, continues moving off to the east. High pressure takes hold mid-week with above-normal temperatures rising into the low-70s. Additional rain chances come towards the end of the week with another cold front forecast to pass Friday, leading to cooler low-60s over the weekend.

Rest of today – rain ending this morning with clouds sticking around and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Clouds diminish towards the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-50s with skies clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure in place with warmer temperatures around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Thursday – similar day to Wednesday, high temperatures a touch warmer in the low-70s, with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with increasing clouds.

GFS model 2-meter above ground temperature anomalies for 8AM Friday

Friday – rain moves in especially later in the day and overnight. High temperatures still quite mild in the upper-60s with warm southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage. Overnight lows cool to around 50ºF following the frontal passage bringing rain.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 6, 2020

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This week, we see slightly above normal temperatures in the low-70s to start off, dropping to below normal temperatures in low-60s later in the week following the passage of a cold front mid-week. Overall sunny conditions punctuated by this frontal boundary tomorrow. Gusty winds and a stray thunderstorm could accompany this front as its parent low deepens over the Canadian Maritimes.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure exiting to our south, yielding light southwesterly flow and high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – slightly warmer with warm southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front, highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s behind this front, which could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area. Gusty winds could also accompany this front due to the large pressure gradient between us and its parent low moving over the Canadian Maritimes.

GFS model surface pressure and 10 meter above ground winds for Wednesday at 8PM

Thursday – Canadian high pressure sweeps in behind the cold front bringing sunny skies and cooler temperatures in mid-60s. Overnight lows much cooler, in the upper-40s due to this change in air masses.

Friday – with a cold start, high temperatures will likely top out in the mid-60s again under sunny skies. Overnight lows warm up into the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 2, 2020

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We have a gray start to the weekend as a cold front that brought rain this morning exits to our east. Behind this frontal passage, conditions should clear this afternoon as high pressure builds. This high pressure will remain in control of our weather for the rest of the weekend. The cooler air mass accompanying this high pressure will result in below normal temps in the mid-60s. There’s some chance for rain again Sunday night as a coastal storm tracks offshore. Cool temperatures in the 60s continue next week.

Rest of today – cool, with clouds slowly breaking up, and a high temperature in the mid-60s. Overnight lows cooling off into the low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. High pressure is forecast to take a commanding position over our region, yielding pleasant, though cool weather.

Saturday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with mostly clear skies.

Sunday – high temperatures again in the mid-60s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. An offshore low may pass close enough to give us some light rain going into Monday morning.

GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Sunday, showing 4ºC cooler than normal temperatures for our area at this height.

Monday – cloudy, with chances for rain from this passing coastal storm. Highs in the low-60s with the clouds in place. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Sept 29, 2020

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Apologies for the lack of updates lately. Have had a few things going on keeping me busy. We have a wet beginning to October on the way with tropical moisture accompanying a slow moving cold front. Heavy rain is possible overnight Tuesday, with isolated flash flooding a concern. Temperatures should be around normal (low-70s) until this weekend when a reinforcing cold front brings us down into the mid-60s.

Rest of today – cloudy with chances for rain increasing later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s. A strong low level jet will be in place overnight, enabling efficient transport of tropical moisture from the south. This will lead to the potential for rounds of moderate to heavy rain, where some training is possible as well. Flash flooding is a concern as places could see 1-2″ of total rainfall overnight. Winds could also be gusty in some of the heavier downpours, which could also produce some thunder. Temperatures generally in the mid-60s.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Wednesday
  • GFS model output for precipitable water valid 2AM Wednesday, showing the potential for heavy rain.

Wednesday – conditions should improve during the day with showers diminishing in the morning. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-70s. Subsidence (sinking air) with westerly winds could produce gusty winds. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with mostly clear skies.

Thursday – partly sunny with highs in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Friday – partly sunny with highs in the mid-60s. Chance for rain with another cold front forecast to move through. Overnight lows in the low-50s as temperatures start to cool off behind this frontal passage.

Looking ahead, behind this cold front, a period of below normal temperatures is forecast to hit much of the Eastern US next week.

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 4, 2020

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You couldn’t wish for better weather this Labor Day Weekend! A dry cold front will pass through today, and high pressure will build in behind it, remaining in control of our sensible weather throughout the remainder of the long weekend. The result will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low-80s and comfortable humidity, ideal for basically any outdoor plans you have.

Rest of today – the warmest day of this period with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny skies prior to the arrival of a cold front. This frontal passage will be moisture starved, so we’re not anticipating any rain with it. There may be some more clouds later on in the day as a result, though. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday. A dry cold front is anticipated to move through later today and through Saturday. This will clear the way for a weekend of remarkably good weather.

Saturday – with the cold front past us, we’ll see cooler temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies again.

Sunday – yet another gorgeous day with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with mostly clear skies.

GFS model of surface pressure and 10 meter above ground level winds. High pressure is forecast to remain over our region through the weekend.

Monday (Labor Day) – high temperatures around 80ºF again with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s under clear skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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This week we will see a possibility of an extended period of cloudy weather, punctuated by periodic storms. This regime will bring cooler than normal temperatures mostly in the low-80s. Good news: Labor Day weekend looks to be dry and cool so far! Looking to the tropics, we’re about to enter the peak of hurricane season, and it’s no surprise in this very active season to date to see that National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances that could become tropical storms.

Rest of today – cool, generally cloudy with possible peaks of sun, high temperatures in the upper-70s. Temperatures will be cool due to a persistent onshore flow with an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a slow-moving warm front/stationary front to our south. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday

Tuesday – the cool, cloudy trend continues with high temperatures again topping out in the upper-70s. Showers may occur periodically during the day. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances of showers continuing.

Wednesday – the cloudy, rainy weather continues, though temperatures may be a touch warmer around 80ºF. Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s as the warm front finally pushes through.

Thursday – cloudy, with a chance for showers, and warmer temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Shower chances persist overnight.

Watching the tropics

Keeping eyes on the tropics, given that we’re about to enter the peak of the season (September) when oceanic heat content tends to be the highest, providing the greatest potential fuel for storms. There are four disturbances in the Atlantic that could become tropical systems, however, none of them are an immediate threat to the US mainland.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.