Tag Archives: forecast

NYC Weekend Update & Severe Weather in the Plains

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The atmosphere over the area the past couple days has been both exceptionally dry and abnormally cool. This trend will end Friday with the approach of a cold front and low pressure system. Because the air mass currently in place is so dry, it will be difficult for the air to moisten at the outset Friday. Thus, forecasters are calling for a mostly dry day with increasing cloud cover, and rain showers moving in over the course of evening and overnight hours. High temperatures Friday will remain in the low 60s.

North American Model simulated radar image for Saturday @ 2PM EST
North American Model simulated radar image for Saturday @ 2PM EST

Saturday will remain a cloudy day with the chance for showers diminishing but still present. As the simulated radar image above suggests, there should be a break in precipitation between Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. However, it does appear that there is enough upper air support for afternoon showers and even some scattered thundershowers are possible Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will be warmer in the upper 60s. Skies should gradually clear once showers pass through, so the latter half of the day will still be sunny.

Sunday temperatures will cool off again with the passage of the cold front Saturday, however, sunny skies will return with high pressure building. Temperatures should be pleasant in the low 60s. Monday looks at this point to be a clone of Sunday.

 

Severe Weather in the Great Plains Sunday

It’s definitely severe weather season at this point in the Plains States and Tornado Alley. These areas have been repeatedly pummeled the past few days by severe hail storms. This weekend promises to be no different. As you can see below, a strong low pressure center is forecast to develop in the lee side of the Rockies Sunday with central pressure as low as 988mb.

Meanwhile, in the upper atmosphere, a vorticity maximum (see below) is forecast to form, with an area of strong divergence just to its east near the forecast center of the surface low. Upper level winds will be largely unidirectional. These are all ideal conditions for a severe weather outbreak. As a result, a wide swath of the Plains States from central Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Southeastern Nebraska have been placed under a Slight Risk area for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center.

Note the strong low pressure center forecast to develop over the lee side of the Rockies - central pressure of 988mb
Note the strong low pressure center forecast to develop over the lee side of the Rockies – central pressure of 988mb
Upper air charts for Sunday afternoon. Note the strong vorticity maximum (area of dark red) over eastern Colorado.
Upper air charts for Sunday afternoon. Note the strong vorticity maximum (area of dark red) over eastern Colorado.

 

NYC Weather Update – Apr 1, 2014

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Don’t be fooled by this gorgeous weather today (seriously).

A low pressure system forming in the lee of the Rockies, along with a nearly stationary frontal boundary draping down from a low moving into Canada will result in cloudy to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the week. There will be a chance for rain each day through Friday. The best chance for steadier rain will be late in the day Friday through Friday night and perhaps into early Saturday morning. This is associated with another area of surface low pressure and trailing cold front.

Note the frontal boundary draping across the region - this will give us a chance for showers each day Wednesday-Friday.
Note the frontal boundary draping across the region – this will give us a chance for showers each day Wednesday-Friday.

High temperatures will warm to near 60 Wednesday with a persistent south-southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Thursday – with the influence of clouds and possible showery rain, temperatures will most likely hover around the mid 50s.

Friday – rain increasingly likely throughout the day Friday with high temperatures continuing to drop to around 50.

Saturday – temperatures will warm again into the upper 50s ahead of a cold front (and with a warm front forecast to swing through), however, it will be a cloudy day with a diminishing chance of showers through the day.

Sunday – the cold front will have passed through allowing for skies to clear, but temperatures will be cooler in the low 50s with winds from the northwest.

 

Next shot at precipitation comes Monday night into Tuesday with a surface low tracking from the Southeastern US.
Next shot at precipitation comes Monday night into Tuesday with a surface low tracking from the Southeastern US.

NYC Midweek Weather – Feb 19, 2014

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Sorry about the lapse in posts! Tuesday ended up being a pretty active weather day with showers moving through the area (thank goodness temps were warm enough so that it wasn’t more snow).

Your weather forecast for this week: rain has already dissipated across the region. Thursday starts out as a mostly sunny day, and highs should top out in the low-mid 40s, slightly above average in the city. Clouds will build throughout the day as a frontal system approaches from the west. Overnight Thursday, chances of precipitation increase along with the passage of a warm front.

Friday, temps continue to increase to the mid 50s ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect a mostly cloudy day, with showers and the potential for a line of stronger thunderstorms accompanying the frontal boundary passing in the afternoon.

Things dry out this weekend, with temps falling back to the mid 40s Saturday and Sunday. Another reinforcing cold front passes through Sunday, dipping high temps in the beginning of next week into mid 30s, below the average of around 40. No major storms on the horizon past Friday!

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