Tag Archives: weekend wx

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

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We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

 

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

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Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 2, 2014

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Friday and Sunday will be the sunny and pleasant bookends to what will be a stormy and rainy Saturday this weekend.

Today – we’re looking at sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 70s. Clouds will begin to build back in later in the evening as the storm maker for Saturday begins to move in from the west.

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NAM high resolution model output for Saturday at 10AM EDT
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Weather Prediction Center forecast map for Saturday

Saturday – a negatively tilted frontal system will be moving over the area Saturday, with the worst of the rain coming between about 10AM-3PM. We will be in the vicinity of a triple point (junction between a cold, stationary, and occluded front, this feature is common with mature mid-latitude cyclonic systems) that will be draping south from a strengthening low pressure center that will be moving northeast into Ontario during this timeframe. A thunderstorm is not out of the question given the atmospheric dynamics. Temperatures should hover around the 70 degree mark despite the cloud cover and rain because of the potential for us to briefly enter a warm sector between the stationary front and cold front.

Sunday – we get a crisp blast of autumn air behind the frontal system passing through Saturday. Sunshine returns just in time for the annual BikeMS NYC, which yours truly will be participating in. Cool temperatures will be only in the mid-upper 60s.

Monday – good weather sticks around for the start of the work week with high temperatures around 70.

Our next chance for precipitation should come Tuesday-Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for the rain Saturday is forecast to close off and retrograde (move west instead of east, with prevailing upper level winds) over central Canada. An impulse of energy will rotate around this center and lead to another cold front passing through our area.

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2014

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We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.

Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.

Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.

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High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.

In the Tropics

There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).

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High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance

This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.

As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.

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