Tag Archives: 2014 atlantic hurricane season

NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2014

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We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.

Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.

Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.

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High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.

In the Tropics

There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).

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High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance

This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.

As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.

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Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 4, 2014 @ 6PM EDT

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Hurricane Arthur is still being analyzed by National Hurricane Center as packing winds of 80mph. Although the inner core is still very symmetrical, you can see that the overall storm is beginning to lose some symmetry. In addition, central pressure has risen a couple millibar since earlier today, indicating the storm is continuing to weaken.

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There’s still plenty of rain in store for Southeastern New England, though, as a couple bands of heavy rain are still moving their way onshore. The worst of the storm is yet to come, with the center of Arthur forecast to make its closest pass to this portion of the country in the next couple hours. Overnight, tropical storm conditions are likely over portions of Eastern Cape Cod.

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Tropical Storm Arthur Update – Jul 2, 2014 @ 18:00 EDT

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Current satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Arthur shows a storm that is increasingly organized, with well established outflow in all quadrants, a symmetrical appearance, and spiral bands around the whole storm. An eye feature continues to grow more clear. The National Hurricane Center current analysis of Arthur indicates a storm with sustained winds of 70mph, just below the 75mph criteria for a Category 1 hurricane.

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Intensity Forecast

Current forecast reasoning shows low wind shear conditions over the next 48 hours, which should allow Arthur to continuously strengthen. Max winds are currently forecast at 85mph.

Track Forecast

As of right now, it seems Arthur has taken a jog to the west, so model forecasts have been pushed west as well. As a result, portions of the Outer Banks in North Carolina have now been placed under a hurricane warning. This slightly more westerly route also means increased potential for impacts in southeastern New England late Friday into Friday night. For NYC, we’ll be looking at soaking rains from the tropical moisture brought up by this storm tomorrow as well as Friday, however, confidence is decreasing that Arthur will rain out our fireworks in NYC.

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Tropical Depression One Update – Jul 1, 2014

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Overnight, the area of disturbed weather mentioned in my previous post intensified enough that the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first tropical depression.

As you can see below in a satellite image captured at 7:45AM EDT this morning, TD One is showing increasing signs of organization. You can clearly see overshooting tops (the bubbly looking clumps of clouds), which are clouds that are breaking up through the tropopause and into the lower stratosphere. This is a hallmark sign of intense thunderstorm updrafts, where warm, humid air is rapidly moving upwards in the atmosphere. You can even see the beginning of what may eventually become a spiral band forming directly south of the storm’s center.

National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm warnings for the Eastern Florida coast. TD One’s sustained wind speeds are at 35mph, only 4mph shy of tropical storm criteria. In fact, as of this writing, TD One may have already become Tropical Storm Arthur, our first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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Storm Track Forecast

TD One is forecast to begin a turn towards the north, then northeast over the period of the next day or so. Thereafter, it is forecast to steadily accelerate in forward speed towards the northeast as a cold front currently approaching our region from the west begins to steer the storm. It appears in the latest model runs that the storm may make a landfall in the Cape Hatteras area of North Carolina, and the move offshore of the Northeast Friday night into Saturday.

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Intensity Forecast

Although the strongest thunderstorms are currently confined to the southern half of the storm, there is high confidence that the storm will continue to organize and become a tropical storm shortly. The National Hurricane Center is also now forecasting that TD One will have sufficiently good conditions to strengthen into a weak hurricane by the time it makes its closest approach to North Carolina. It will eventually get absorbed by the cold front mentioned above and make an extratropical transition somewhere off the coast of the Canadian Maritimes.

What This Means for Us

The tropical moisture from this storm is increasingly likely to throw a damper on July 4th plans for the area, when the storm and approaching cold front will interact to produce the chance for heavy rain, thunderstorms, and possibly some strong wind gusts. However, even though this is forecast to occur within the next 3-4 days, there is still a good deal of uncertainty as to the final track of this storm, especially as it approaches the Northeast. More updates soon!