Hurricane Arthur is still being analyzed by National Hurricane Center as packing winds of 80mph. Although the inner core is still very symmetrical, you can see that the overall storm is beginning to lose some symmetry. In addition, central pressure has risen a couple millibar since earlier today, indicating the storm is continuing to weaken.
There’s still plenty of rain in store for Southeastern New England, though, as a couple bands of heavy rain are still moving their way onshore. The worst of the storm is yet to come, with the center of Arthur forecast to make its closest pass to this portion of the country in the next couple hours. Overnight, tropical storm conditions are likely over portions of Eastern Cape Cod.
As of 9AM EDT, Hurricane Arthur has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity as a Category 2, and sustained winds have declined to 90mph. However, its eye is still clearly visible, and as you can see below, the storm is maintaining a symmetrical appearance with good outflow in all quadrants, meaning this is still quite a powerful storm. As Arthur continues moving northeast, it is expected to weaken rapidly upon entering much cooler waters and with increasing vertical shear from the codl front seen below. Track Forecast
Forecast models are in very close agreement about Arthur’s track over the next 12 hours or so. As you see below, they are tightly clustered around the 40N, 70W benchmark. Hence, forecast reasoning has not changed much since yesterday night. Arthur is expected to continue its northeast track and speed up under the influence of the cold front depicted above, moving offshore of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes as it makes extratropical transition.
What This Means for Us
As expected, Arthur will be bringing multiple rounds of rain to the entire Northeast over the course of the day today. You can already see Arthur’s outer rain bands on our regional radar (you’d see it in the standard 124 nautical mile radar, but I’ve inserted an image of 248 nautical mile range radar image to see the storm better). As Arthur accelerates and makes its closest pass to this part of the country, we’ll see repeated bands of rain moving on shore. You can expect periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, interspersed with some dry spells under cloudy skies.
The Rest of the Weekend
Once Arthur and the cold front clear the Northeast, we will see a return to a spectacular weekend with high pressure building back in. Sunny skies, mild, and dry conditions will prevail across the entire region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. As the high pressure moves to our southeast, we’ll see a return flow from the backside of the high pressure ushering in another warm, humid airmass for the beginning of next week.
We will be feeling the impacts of yet another storm, in what seems like an endless winter. A low pressure system currently over Cape Hatteras will move offshore into the Atlantic shortly. Once it does so, it is forecast to strengthen rapidly as it moves northeast towards the 40N 70W benchmark, which is associated with prime conditions for growth of strong nor’easters and winter storms.
Currently, forecast models are showing the brunt of the storm hitting Southeastern Mass and New England. In areas, the NWS office in Taunton is confident that there could be up to 12-15″ of snow, in addition to strong winds in excess of 50mph that have led to blizzard warnings for east facing shores of Mass including the Cape.
Impact
For our area, eastern Long Island is expected to see enough of a heavy snow band forecast to rotate around this storm to have winter storm warnings issued. These areas could see 6-8″+ of snow from this storm. Projected snowfall totals drop significantly as you go west, with mid-Island and Central Connecticut forecast to see 4-8″, and points west (including NYC) receiving 2-4″. Wind will also be a factor with a tightening pressure gradient caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal low.
Timing
Light snow is already falling over the area now, but the worst of this storm should take place in the evening and overnight hours. Snow and wind should pick up in intensity from southeast to northwest throughout the day. If you have made plans to travel along the NYC-Providence-Boston corridor, expect travel conditions to become hazardous this evening/night. The most intense part of this storm will be ongoing from about 6PM-1AM, but accumulating snow will begin around 3PM.
Notes
As with most storms this winter, there is still uncertainty as to the final track of the storm. Should the storm track slightly westward, and the deformation axis determining where a heavy band of snow progresses further inland, then areas west of where current winter storm warnings exist could see significantly higher snow accumulation. There is also some indication that a norlun trough might form, leading to a intense snow band projecting west/northwest from the center the coastal low. If this feature does develop, areas that this trough sits over could see much higher than projected snowfall.
