Hurricane Arthur is still being analyzed by National Hurricane Center as packing winds of 80mph. Although the inner core is still very symmetrical, you can see that the overall storm is beginning to lose some symmetry. In addition, central pressure has risen a couple millibar since earlier today, indicating the storm is continuing to weaken.
There’s still plenty of rain in store for Southeastern New England, though, as a couple bands of heavy rain are still moving their way onshore. The worst of the storm is yet to come, with the center of Arthur forecast to make its closest pass to this portion of the country in the next couple hours. Overnight, tropical storm conditions are likely over portions of Eastern Cape Cod.
As of 9AM EDT, Hurricane Arthur has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity as a Category 2, and sustained winds have declined to 90mph. However, its eye is still clearly visible, and as you can see below, the storm is maintaining a symmetrical appearance with good outflow in all quadrants, meaning this is still quite a powerful storm. As Arthur continues moving northeast, it is expected to weaken rapidly upon entering much cooler waters and with increasing vertical shear from the codl front seen below. Track Forecast
Forecast models are in very close agreement about Arthur’s track over the next 12 hours or so. As you see below, they are tightly clustered around the 40N, 70W benchmark. Hence, forecast reasoning has not changed much since yesterday night. Arthur is expected to continue its northeast track and speed up under the influence of the cold front depicted above, moving offshore of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes as it makes extratropical transition.
What This Means for Us
As expected, Arthur will be bringing multiple rounds of rain to the entire Northeast over the course of the day today. You can already see Arthur’s outer rain bands on our regional radar (you’d see it in the standard 124 nautical mile radar, but I’ve inserted an image of 248 nautical mile range radar image to see the storm better). As Arthur accelerates and makes its closest pass to this part of the country, we’ll see repeated bands of rain moving on shore. You can expect periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, interspersed with some dry spells under cloudy skies.
The Rest of the Weekend
Once Arthur and the cold front clear the Northeast, we will see a return to a spectacular weekend with high pressure building back in. Sunny skies, mild, and dry conditions will prevail across the entire region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. As the high pressure moves to our southeast, we’ll see a return flow from the backside of the high pressure ushering in another warm, humid airmass for the beginning of next week.
Lots going on in the realm of weather over the coming weekend. First, to start off with today, the Storm Prediction Center has again placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. We could see a repeat of the type of storms from last night as a cold front makes its approach from the west. Even though temperatures are lower today and sunlight limited, there’s still more than enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Because we’re looking at another round of possibly torrential rain from today’s storms, many areas are under a flash flood watch. Part of this moisture is due to the influence of Hurricane Arthur to our south.
Hurricane Arthur
As of this morning, Arthur strengthened into the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first hurricane and is currently sitting offshore of South Carolina with sustained winds of about 90mph. Forecasters are increasingly confident that Arthur will have enough time over warm water and low wind shear areas to grow into a Category 2 storm before getting recurved out to sea and making extratropical transition.
Track Forecast for Hurricane Arthur
Arthur is now forecast to brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime later today, and move to just about the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast by 8PM Friday. Given this current forecast track, confidence is increasing that we’ll continue to see heavy rain and showers through out Friday into Fridaynight, though not directly from Arthur itself. Rather, Arthur will be interacting with that cold front mentioned above to throw a wrench in everyone’s July 4th plans. Conditions should begin to improve rapidly Saturday as Arthur accelerates northeast, pushed by the cold front. We should see a return to sunny skies and seasonable weather Saturday with highs around the low 80s. Of particular concern are areas in Southeastern New England, which could see tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning. Any deviation westward of this current forecast track would mean increased impacts on the Northeast, so this storm is worth watching closely. Regardless, high surface and dangerous riptides will be present on all Atlantic shorelines.
A quick update on TS Arthur, before a more substantial post later this afternoon. Based on the latest satellite imagery, it appears that Arthur is continuing to gather strength. You can see below that a central eye feature is beginning to form, and that spiral bands have now begun wrapping around the west side of the storm. While Arthur continues to struggle with dry air on its western side, it does seem that this is gradually being overcome. The inner core of the storm is displaying relatively symmetrical outflows, a sign that the storm is strengthening.
As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center analysis indicated that Arthur now has sustained winds of 60mph, and is moving north.
