Severe thunderstorms are approaching the area from our west. Several distinct bowing segments of severe thunderstorms have been making their way steadily towards our area from Central Pennsylvania since earlier this afternoon.
These storms have a history of producing damaging wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. Sundown over some of the areas under the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch areas in our region may weaken these storms, however, overall atmospheric conditions are quite favorable to the forward propagation of this line.
Lots going on in the realm of weather over the coming weekend. First, to start off with today, the Storm Prediction Center has again placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. We could see a repeat of the type of storms from last night as a cold front makes its approach from the west. Even though temperatures are lower today and sunlight limited, there’s still more than enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Because we’re looking at another round of possibly torrential rain from today’s storms, many areas are under a flash flood watch. Part of this moisture is due to the influence of Hurricane Arthur to our south.
Hurricane Arthur
As of this morning, Arthur strengthened into the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first hurricane and is currently sitting offshore of South Carolina with sustained winds of about 90mph. Forecasters are increasingly confident that Arthur will have enough time over warm water and low wind shear areas to grow into a Category 2 storm before getting recurved out to sea and making extratropical transition.
Track Forecast for Hurricane Arthur
Arthur is now forecast to brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime later today, and move to just about the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast by 8PM Friday. Given this current forecast track, confidence is increasing that we’ll continue to see heavy rain and showers through out Friday into Fridaynight, though not directly from Arthur itself. Rather, Arthur will be interacting with that cold front mentioned above to throw a wrench in everyone’s July 4th plans. Conditions should begin to improve rapidly Saturday as Arthur accelerates northeast, pushed by the cold front. We should see a return to sunny skies and seasonable weather Saturday with highs around the low 80s. Of particular concern are areas in Southeastern New England, which could see tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning. Any deviation westward of this current forecast track would mean increased impacts on the Northeast, so this storm is worth watching closely. Regardless, high surface and dangerous riptides will be present on all Atlantic shorelines.
Great day to start the week, with warm temperatures and sunny skies. Highs will top out in the low 80s today.
Tuesday, clouds will begin to build in ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain warm with southwest flow and the cold front pushing warm air ahead of it. High temperatures should be around the low 80s with a chance of rain increasing into the afternoon.
Wednesday – a chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms persist through the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. Temperatures will again be warm in the low 80s ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, generally mostly cloudy skies.
Thursday – the cold front is finally expected to pass through NYC on Thursday. This should set the stage for the best chance of significant precipitation this week. We may again see some thunderstorms, though none severe. Temperatures will cool off a bit with the rain and in the wake of the cold front, with high temperatures in the upper 70s.
Friday – high pressure builds in for Friday, remaining anchored and increasing in intensity over the weekend. This will translate to another splendid weekend of seasonable temperatures and sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The Weekend – as mentioned above, high pressure will set the stage for seasonable temperatures and pleasant conditions during the weekend. Expecting high temperatures in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies. The high pressure will also block a storm system forecast to develop over the plains from entering our area until next week.
Just a quick update on your Memorial Day Weekend weather.
Saturday, still looks like there’s a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NYC metro area in the afternoon hours of Saturday. High temperatures will be mild in the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies.
In Oberlin, temperatures will be around the same in the low 70s, but skies will be clear and sunny.
Sunday will see clearing skies for the NYC metro area and warmer temps in the upper 70s and even low 80s particularly inland. Cooler at the shore with some (especially the south facing shore of  Long Island) with a sea breeze and highs in the low-mid 70s. Still, an all around excellent beach day.
Oberlin will remain sunny with clear skies and highs in the upper 70s.
Monday will be the warmest day of the weekend with highs in the low 80s in the NYC area and mostly sunny skies.
Oberlin may see some clouds building in over the course of the day with an approaching storm system, but not expecting any rain. Highs in the upper 70s.
Visibility for Tonight’s Meteor Showers
Again, it is looking like the NYC area will miss out on the chance to see these meteor showers with cloud cover expected to be widespread. Good viewing for Oberlin though!
Cloud cover forecast for select locations (blue line). Red box indicates best viewing window for the meteor showers.
Weather conditions will gradually deteriorate through the course of the day today as an approaching storm system draws closer to our area. Cloud coverage, scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms associated with a warm front should increase in coverage during the course of the day. High temperatures should be on the mild side in the mid-70s.
Thursday – as of now, the National Weather Service calls for the aforementioned warm front to approach but not clear our region by Thursday morning. As such, cooler southeast and easterly winds off the ocean will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs only in the mid-upper 60s. There will be a persistence chance for showers and thunderstorms as multiple impulses of energy ride up and along the frontal system, with a break probably occurring between early Thursday morning and later Thursday afternoon/evening.
Friday – in NYC, although the warm and cold fronts associated with this latest storm are forecast to have cleared through the area by Friday, an upper level low situated over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to allow impulses of energy (shortwaves) to rotate into our area providing the spark for a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Friday afternoon and evening. This upper low will be slow to move east due to a strong blocking “omega” high pressure center located over the central North Atlantic. High temperatures will again be around the upper 60s.
For Oberlin, conditions will begin to improve earlier with the chance of rain ending by Thursday, partly sunny skies Friday with gradual clearing and highs in the upper 60s.
NAM output simulated radar image for Friday at 2PM EDTGFS model output of 500 mb heights and absolute vorticity for Friday at 2PM EDT
Saturday – we’ll see an tenuous area of high pressure trying to build in from our west. However, there may still be a marginal chance of PM showers. Otherwise, expect gradually improving conditions with temperatures climbing back up into the low 70s.
Sunday and Monday (Memorial Day) – These will be the best days of the weekend with dry, mostly sunny, and warm conditions. High temperatures will continue to climb into the mid-upper 70s Sunday and possibly topping 80 Monday (this applies to both Oberlin and NYC). Next chance at rain will be Tuesday.
A New and Spectacular May Meteor Shower? – About Comet 209P/LINEAR & CamelopardalisÂ
A friend of mine brought to my attention that a newly discovered and possibly brilliant meteor shower is forecast to take place in the early morning hours of Saturday, May 24th.
In brief, Earth is forecast to pass through the debris trail of a comet “Comet 209P/LINEAR” (discovered in 2004) during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Researchers are forecasting that the debris trail Earth passes through is one that has accumulated dust from as early as 1800 to 1924. As such, expectations are that we could see about an average of 200-400 meteors an hour (some estimates call for a meteor storm of 1000 meteors an hour!), i.e. between about 3-7 meteors per minute. Furthermore, the setup for this event is such that Southern Canada and the East Coast of the U.S. are ideally positioned to view this event. In the image below, the red line represents the forecast position of the radiant line (point from which meteors appear to emanate and where you would see the highest number of meteors), note that this line runs almost direct over Washington DC. Also, notice that the moon is in waxing gibbous phase, reducing its potential to overpower the meteor shower.
Timing and Visibility
The forecast zenith of this meteor shower is between 2AM-4AM Eastern Daylight Savings Time on Saturday, May 24th. Right now, the forecast for this time window calls for mostly cloudy skies over NYC as well as points east and north (i.e. New England). Partly cloudy skies are forecast the points further south and west (i.e. along the Jersey Shore, Washington DC/Northern, Eastern Virginia, Western Pennsylvania), with the best viewing conditions being in the DC metro area and Eastern Virginia where mostly clear skies are forecast. A word of caution: cloud cover forecasts even this close to the day of are notoriously difficult to pin down due to the fact that even small changes in initial conditions can lead to large shifts in a forecast. However, with high pressure building over the east coast throughout the course of the weekend, we should have generally good chances to view this shower.
My recommendation is that you go check this out in an area with minimal light pollution if  you can. I think we’re in for a what I hope will be a good show!
Where to Look
The radiant point for this forecast meteor shower will be situated in the relatively obscure constellation Camelopardalis (named by the Romans for a hybrid animal that looks like both a camel and leopard, now known as a giraffe). As you’ll see below, this constellation is located slightly below the North Star (Polaris), and a bit to the right of the Big Dipper.
You can read a more in-depth analysis of this meteor shower here. I’ve grabbed and edited a couple images from this entry.
