Check out this satellite loop of a line of severe thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma extending northeast into western Missouri. You can see the classic telltale signs of explosive thunderstorm growth here. Notice how at the outset, the line of clouds near the center of the frame are relatively thin, but then balloon out as time goes by. What’s happening here is that the cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds along this line are growing so rapidly that they are hitting the top of the troposphere. Since water vapor has a difficult time penetrating into the stratosphere, it gets forced out laterally instead. Indeed, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a mesoscale discussion, along with severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado watches for much of the area.
Get out there and enjoy the sunny, mild weather while if you can today. We caught a nice break and got enough sunshine today that we’ll probably top 60 in quite a few spots around NYC. Clouds will increase over the next couple hours. Conditions will steadily deteriorate as a surface low pressures system currently spawning some severe weather over the Plains states tracks northeast into our area. Friday – keep the umbrella handy as periods of showers are likely to occur throughout the day, with increasing coverage and intensity later on in the day into the overnight hours. An steady onshore breeze will usher in much cooler air off the ocean (sea surface temperatures offshore of the region are only in the upper 30s to low 40s). As a result, high temp will hover in the mid 40s.
Saturday – the storm system bringing us rain Friday into Saturday will advance a warm front through the area, and we’ll see a rebound in temperatures and gradually clearing skies. High temps could again top 60.
Sunday – another pleasant and mild spring day as high pressure moves into the area. Mostly sunny skies with a high again near 60.
Monday – our next shot at rain will come Monday-Tuesday of next week, with a storm system forecast to develop in the Gulf. This storm will track northeast through the Ohio valley into the Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front will bring us some steady rain. High temperatures Monday will be around 60 with warmer air flowing from the southwest ahead of the cold front. Long Island and CT shorelines will see cooler highs with an onshore flow.
Our next shot at rain – a low pressure system moving from the Gulf into the lower Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front.
