Classic major nor’easter to bring blizzard conditions to a large swath of the Northeast Tuesday just days from the official start of spring. Areas in and around NYC likely to see snowfall accumulations of over 1 foot, locally higher. This may end up being one of the biggest snowstorms/blizzards in history for the month of March in NYC.
Rest of today – the proverbial calm before the storm. Mostly sunny, cold, with high temperatures in the low-30s.
Tuesday – a major late season nor’easter will bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the area. Blizzard warning in effect for the entirety of Tuesday. Snow starts falling overnight into Tuesday. Heaviest snows forecast to begin around the morning rush and continue through most of the day. Blizzard conditions expected on the coast with steady north to northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts over 45mph. Visibility near zero at times. High temperatures at or below freezing. Widespread accumulations over 1 foot and approaching or exceeding 18″ expected around the NYC metro area. Details on the storm at the end of this post.
Wednesday – lingering chance for snow showers early with wrap around moisture on the backside of the departing nor’easter. Mostly cloudy with a high near freezing.
Thursday – skies clearing, high temperatures in the low-mid 30s.
Major Blizzard to Impact the NYC Region
Winter Storm Stella, as the Weather Channel refers to it, is set to bring widespread heavy snow to the area beginning overnight Monday and continuing throughout the day Tuesday.
Impacts – Snow accumulations over 1 foot, in many cases approaching 18″. Locally higher amounts, with some areas possibly approaching 2 feet. Heavy snow and blowing snow during the day Tuesday. Snowfall rates 2-4″ per hour and possibly higher in the heaviest snow bands possible. Thundersnow may accompany the strongest snow bands. Blowing and drifting snow with steady northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts 45-50mph will contribute to blizzard conditions with near zero visibility at times. East and northeast facing shorelines may experience moderate coastal flooding during high tide cycles. Heavy, wet snow at the coast combined with high winds may lead to power outages. Hazardous travel conditions, severe disruptions to aviation likely. High confidence in storm total snowfall at this point, but there is still uncertainty about whether and where mixing could occur.
Timing – Snow begins early in the overnight hours Tuesday. Light accumulations of 2-4″ possible by daybreak. Heavy snow likely beginning during the morning rush hour and continuing through most of the work day, as well as into the evening rush hour. Winds quickly intensifying from the morning and staying steady through the evening hours. Heaviest snow tapers off in the early evening hours, but snow showers could continue overnight. Winds remain strong overnight into Wednesday. Conditions improve going into the morning Wednesday.
Discussion – an area of low pressure that had its origins in the Pacific has made its way across the northern US, impacting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with snow. This storm system will phase with a secondary, coastal low pressure system that is currently moving up the coast from the Southeast. As these storms merge, the coastal low will undergo rapid intensification and cyclogenesis, becoming a strong Nor’easter. This storm will be drawing on subtropical moisture, and will encounter an airmass that will be quite cold due to the presence of an Arctic high pressure system prior to the storm’s passage. These ingredients will set the stage for a classic major blizzard for the Northeast late in the winter season, only days from spring.
As always, uncertainty remains about the exact location of the heaviest snow bands with this storm. Areas that are impacted by these bands can easily rack up several more inches than surrounding areas that are spared. The storm is expected to track west of the 40°N/70°W benchmark. However, during the last model runs, the storm track has trended north and west, increasing the chances for the city itself to see the heaviest snow, in addition to areas north and west. If this track shifts west some more, warmer air off the ocean wrapping into the core of the storm from the south could induce mixed precipitation with rain cutting down on totals in the city and Long Island. If the track shifts east, heavier snow would fall over points east of the city.