NYC Weekend Snowstorm Update – Feb 5, 2021

Synopsis

Another accumulating snow event is possible during the day Sunday this weekend, with accumulations somewhere in the 2-4″ range currently most likely. If this storm tracks a bit closer to shore, we could see totals more in the 4-6″ range. The timing of this storm is much faster than the previous one, with onset of snow early in the day Sunday, lasting potentially through the early afternoon hours. As a weaker system, without as strong a high pressure system downstream, winds should also not be as robust as with the Monday storm.

Forecast Details

At the Surface

Low pressure developing over the Southern Plains will emerge offshore of the Carolinas later tonight. This surface low will strengthen modestly as it tracks quickly northeast. Current thinking is that the storm track takes it outside of the classic 40ºN/70ºW benchmark that leads to maximized snowfall for nor’easter type systems in this area.

850 mb Level

At this level of the atmosphere, it’s apparent that this storm is much less of a headline maker than Monday’s snowstorm. It’s evident from various models that while there should be enough moisture to sustain precipitation, the winds at this level are not forecast to be anywhere near as strong as on Monday. The lack of a truly robust low-level jet will make for an overall slightly drier scenario.

500 mb Level

Unlike the last storm, the 500 mb level flow for this upcoming storm is more progressive. This will lead to the storm moving faster through the area. One notable factor contributing to the potential for a decent storm this time is that there will be a negatively tilted trough at this level, indicative of a maturing and deepening low. This feature will serve to enhance divergence at this level and induce surface lift in response.

300 mb Level

As was the case with Monday’s storm, a curved jet streak should set up just north and east of this storm’s surface low. The entrance region of this jet streak should allow stronger divergence and enhanced lift as a result.

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