Tag Archives: georgia

Hurricane Irma Special Update – Sep 7, 2017

This is one of an upcoming series of special posts dedicated to Hurricane Irma. I’m hoping these posts will keep those of you who are either in areas at risk or have friends and family there informed and prepared as this historic storm bears down on the US mainland.

Current Situation

Hurricane Irma remains an impressive Category 5 storm packing sustained wind speeds of 175 mph. It is nearing the Turks and Caicos Islands as of this time.

Headlines

  • The threat Irma poses to South Florida as a strong Category 4 storm continues to increase
  • There is a risk to the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts. This risk would increase if there’s eastward movement of the storm track, as was the case in previous track forecasts.
  • Major impacts are expected to the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas archipelagos
  • The threat to the northern coast of Cuba remains high. Hurricane watches have been upgraded to warnings.
  • This is a large hurricane – the larger the size of the storm, the larger the storm surge it can generate. Even if the eye of the storm misses Florida to the east, the entire state could still feel the impacts of tropical storm and hurricane force winds.

Forecast Track

Here is the National Hurricane Center’s latest official forecast with a 5-day cone of uncertainty reflecting the spread in forecast models. Models have been wavering between a more westerly and easterly track in the past 24 hours which would have big implications (see below).

Here are some actual forecast model outputs on the storm’s track.

 

GFS model run showing Irma very close to or making landfall on the Miami area on Sunday at 8AM

 

Forecast Intensity

Unless the core of the storm interacts with the high terrain of Cuba by making landfall on it, it is unlikely that Irma would weaken significantly.

Wind shear is expected to remain low at the mid-levels, which means basically zero disruption to the core of the storm. Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the Florida Straits and Bahamas. This will support the storm maintaining itself as a very powerful hurricane.

Irma is expected to approach South Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm (sustained winds over 130 mph). Even with some interaction with Florida, Georgia and South Carolina could still expect a strong Category 2 (sustained winds > 95 mph) or a Category 3 (sustained winds > 115 mph).

 

Uncertainties

The critical component of forecast track uncertainty is the timing and degree of influence a mid-level trough (the dip in that solid black line in the image below) on initiating Irma to begin a turn to the north as it rounds the western periphery of the Bermuda high that has been steering it thus far. The effect of a mid-level trough is both to weaken the Bermuda high and also to exert a pull on Irma to the north.

 

The timing of Irma’s northward turn is significant as an earlier turn would result in a more easterly track, and a later turn would result in a more westerly track. A small deviation either way could either spare an area from a direct hit by the devastating eye of the storm or bring it right into the eye.

  • A track to the east that takes the center of the storm away from South Florida would result in a stronger impact on the Georgia/South Carolina coasts
  • A track to the west would reduce the possible dangers to Georgia and South Carolina but increase the threat to the entire Florida Peninsula. This would still result in serious impacts to South Florida.
  • Another factor to consider is that landfall on Cuba and any significant interaction of the core of the storm with the high mountains of Cuba would result in a weaker storm affecting Florida and other US locales

 

Irma’s Impacts Thus Far

Overnight into today, Hurricane Irma made landfall on several small Leeward Islands including Barbuda and Saint-Martin/Sint-Maarten. These islands took a direct hit from the eyewall of Irma, which packed sustained winds of 185 mph. This resulted in catastrophic damage to Barbuda that the prime minister described as rendering the island barely habitable. Below, you can watch some footage captured by a camera at Princess Juliana International Airport located in Sint-Maarten, the Dutch side of Saint Martin as the eyewall impacted that location.

As on Barbuda, scenes of widespread damage were to be found on Sint-Maarten as well. Here’s an infrared satellite image of Irma as its eye swallowed Anguilla and Saint-Martin/Sint-Maarten last night:

Hurricane Irma has smashed an all-time record for longest duration of winds at 185 mph in the satellite era (1970s or so onward) with these winds lasting for 36 hours. This is truly incredible considering that the strongest tropical cyclones are typically found in the Western Pacific where these storms have ample time over warm water to grow.

Historic Ice Storm to Hit GA, SC

Screen shot 2014-02-11 at 6.11.11 PM

The storm system set to impact the Northeast will make its impact felt in the Southeast Wednesday and Thursday. An historic ice storm/winter storm is set to take shape and impact areas of the Atlanta metro, hard hit by the January 28th storm.

To quote National Weather Service in Atlanta:

HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE DIRE PREDICTIONS OF A HALF AND INCHOF ICE TO CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.BIGGEST CHANGE PERHAPS IS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH NOW 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH 10 INCHES TO PERHAPS A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO INCREASE THE TOTALS FOR THE NORTH ATLANTA METRO WITH AN INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

Ice accumulation on top of snow of this magnitude will almost certainly lead to widespread power outages from downed tree limbs and power lines, as well as deadly travel conditions. The governor of Georgia, Nathan Deal, wisely declared a state of emergency and shut down non-essential services across the state.

The areas of greatest impact for icing will lie along the I-20 corridor east of Atlanta, curving into central South Carolina, although ice storm warnings have not been posted yet in some areas of South Carolina. If you are living in this area, avoid any unnecessary travel, and make any necessary preparations immediately.