A hot and active weather pattern sets in for this holiday weekend. Despite multiple rounds of possible showers and thunderstorms, this will be far from a washout. Most of the precipitation looks to be late in the day or overnight, leaving most of the day clear for all manner of outdoor activities. The weather clears up in time for the holiday itself.
Rest of today – warm, humid, high temperatures in the upper-80s with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the overnight hours, more likely west of the city. It remains to be seen if organized showers remain intact as they approach much more stable air at the coast.
Saturday – another warm and humid day with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – best chances for rain are overnight into Sunday. Another hot day in store as a slow moving cold front to the west keeps the door open for hot and humid tropical air to flow into the area from the southwest.
Monday – with the cold front behind us, fair weather with high temperatures in the mid-80s and lots of sun.
The first official full week of summer starts out more spring-like, but heats up towards the end of the week. Along with the heat, chances for rain and thunderstorms also increase, leading to an active weather pattern for there holiday weekend.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with a small chance for a pop-up shower inland, north and west of the city as a weaker cold front moves through. High temperature around 80°F.
Tuesday – a second cold front approaches, weakening as it does so. This front will bring another slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. High around 80°F again.
Wednesday – high pressure builds behind the cold front. Temperatures remain below average in the upper-70s to 80°F with sunny skies.
Thursday – high pressure to the south starts sliding southeast and brings warmer tropical air flowing clockwise around it. This will have the effect of raising temperatures into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies.
The weather on Sunday turned out to be a real gift for fathers in the region, yielding a lot more clear skies than anticipated going into the weekend. We could have a rough start this week with possible severe weather, and another chance of rain mid-week. A tropical system forming over the Gulf of Mexico bears watching this coming weekend.
Rest of today – humid and warm with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Mostly sunny to start. All the ingredients for possibly severe thunderstorms will be in place this afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the area west of Long Island. The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of the region west of the Hudson River under an enhanced risk of experiencing severe weather with the city itself in a slight risk area.
A vigorous cold front will move east towards NYC today. As we can feel, the airmass ahead of the front is saturated and warm. The more sun we get before the front approaches, the greater the destabilization in the atmosphere. The cold front will line up with the flow of the jet stream, which will favor line segments and training of storm cells repeatedly hitting the same areas (flash flood warning is in place because of this).
Timing of the leading edge of the storms appears to be around 5pm. Any storms or substantial cloud cover ahead of this would decrease the severe potential. Primary threat along this leading line of storms would be damaging wind gusts with a small chance for hail and a couple isolated tornadoes.
Behind this leading line of storms, we could see a slight break around 8PM, but then more rounds of moderate to heavy rains that could lead to flash flooding.
Tuesday – severe weather and rain should dissipate fairly quickly after midnight. Decreasing clouds in the wake of the cold front though high temperatures remain similar to today due to the influence of southwest winds.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. A chance for rain in the afternoon, but much milder and less widespread than today.
Thursday – mostly sunny again, with highs in the low-80s again.
Potential Tropical Storm in the Gulf
Two possible tropical systems are churning, one east of the Windward Islands and the other crossing over the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. The latter system may have a tangible impact in terms of bringing tropical moisture to the area this coming weekend.
What a difference a week makes. Since Wednesday, we’ve seen temperatures slide from record heat in some places. An unsettled weather pattern takes hold through the weekend and into next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.
Rest of today – Cloudy, temperatures on the cool side with high temperatures only in the low-70s. Multiple chances for mainly showery precipitation with a warm front slowly creeping towards us. Two primary batches of rain look to affect the area around noon then again in the late evening around 10pm.
Saturday – the warm front mentioned above should push through, but could be slow to do so which would result in a lower high temperature like today as opposed to the upper-70s. Both before and after the warm front passage there’s a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally mostly cloudy.
Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector between the exiting warm front and an approaching cold front. High temperatures will respond by climbing into the mid-80s. Could start the day off with scattered showers. The majority of the day looks rain-free though cloudy. Not a total washout for Father’s Day, but not ideal either.
Monday – the cold front pushes through late in the day. High temperatures again in the low-mid 80s. There’s some possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms with associated with this cold front. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere would easily yield some heavy downpours as well.
Main weather headline for the start of the week remains the heat and humidity. We’re in day two of the second heat wave of the year. Luckily for us, relief is not far off, with a cold front moving through Tuesday, a distinct change in airmasses will bring much cooler temperatures for the balance of the week.
Rest of today – sunny, hot, humid, high temperatures ranging from the low-mid 90s across the area with heat index values in the upper-90s. Air quality alert is in effect for high levels of ozone. The only relief from the heat will be on immediate south-facing shores that benefit from a sea breeze.
Tuesday – much the same as today to start off, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and very humid again. Overnight temperatures going into Tuesday will be quite mild as well. There is a possibility later in the afternoon for a few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that may pop up ahead of a cold front pushing through.
Wednesday – much cooler and less humid in the wake of the passing cold front. We will feel the cooling relief of a northeasterly wind as a high pressure center over southeastern Canada becomes the primary factor for our sensible weather. Temperatures will top out near 80ºF with mostly sunny skies.
Thursday – temperatures cool off even more into the mid-70s with increasing clouds.
Got retrained as a SKYWARN spotter last night – this weekend should be tranquil though. A steady warming trend begins this weekend and lasts through mid-week next week. After a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather, we could see the second heatwave of the season. Great weekend for a getaway to the beach!
Rest of today – mostly sunny, temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80º. Some residual instability in the wake of a low pressure center exiting the Northeast may touch off a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday – the warmup continues with temperatures climbing into the low-80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon hours with the passage of an upper level disturbance.
Sunday – the heat arrives in earnest as a Bermuda high sets up and begins to strengthen. This will begin pumping in warmer and more humid air from the south and southwest. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low-90s in the city with sunny skies, with cooler temperatures due to the sea breeze on south-facing shores in the mid-80s. Great beach day, and ideal conditions for the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade.
Monday – the heat continues with temperatures again in the low-90s with some spots in the mid-90s and sunny skies. There could be a heat advisory up at some point.
The beginning of June sure won’t feel like summer with an extended period of unsettled weather through midweek due to the influence of a very slow moving set of low pressure centers. However, forecast models are trending towards a warm up towards the end of the week and going into the weekend.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures approaching 70ºF. Periods of rain possible later in the day along with a couple thunderstorms.
Tuesday – periods of showers likely throughout the day with temperatures much cooler in the mid-50s due to the influence of an onshore, northeasterly wind.
Wednesday – mostly cloudy again, with rain chances gradually diminishing. Cool, with temperatures in the low-60s.
Thursday – finally get a shift in winds away form the northeast. Partly sunny, and warmer with high temperatures near 70ºF.
Warmup Ahead
Climate Prediction Center forecasts for 6-10 days out show a pronounced warm up occurring over the Eastern US as high pressure starts to setup over the western Atlantic. This weekend should feature temperatures closer to normal in the upper-70s and low-80s.
This weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, seasonable, and pleasant conditions until late in the day Sunday when our next chance for rain moves in. The low pressure causing this next round of rain looks to linger well into mid-week next week, which will bring on several days of cool, cloudy, and rainy weather to contrast with the beginning of the weekend.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with some slight chance for scattered thunderstorms, most likely appearing west of NYC. High temperatures ranging in the mid-upper 70s.
Saturday – mild, pleasant, mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. High pressure will be in control for a day.
Sunday – high pressure starts breaking down as the next storm system approaches. This storm system will be a complex and slow moving one. While the bulk of the moisture associated with this storm looks to stay offshore, we will still get multiple rounds of rain from it, beginning late Sunday. Temperatures will be a touch cooler in the low-70s with increasing clouds Sunday.
Monday – cloudy with temperatures in the low-70s, and periods of rain likely throughout the day. Kicks off a cooler and wetter than normal trend leading at least into mid-week.
