After a week of sweltering temperatures, the weekend brings some welcome relief from the heat. The downside is that these cooler temperatures come with mostly cloudy conditions and chances for rain. Labor Day marks the traditional end of summer, and it will feel like that this weekend, but temperatures will rise right back into the upper-80s and low-90s next week.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with onshore easterly flow keeping temperatures suppressed in the mid-70s. This easterly onshore flow is happening on the back side of a cold front that passed through yesterday. This front will stall out and become stationary south of us over the Delmarva Peninsula. As impulses of energy move along this front, there will be chances for rain. However, it does appear the best chances for rain stay south of us.
Saturday – mostly cloudy still with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper-70s. Easterly onshore winds continue along with some chances for rain in the afternoon and more chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Sunday – warming up into the mid-80s with scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny skies otherwise.
Monday (Labor Day) – conditions improve just in time for the West Indian Day Parade festivities with high temperatures in the upper-80s and partly sunny skies.
The dog days of summer arrive in full force this week before we close out the month of August. With a strong Bermuda high in place well southeast and secondary high pressure in the area, we will see a heat wave take place from today into Thursday. Several days of hot, humid weather are on tap until a cold front moves through Thursday, bringing the potential for strong thunderstorms and much cooler air in its wake.
Rest of today – hot, though not quite as humid as it will be later this week. High temperatures in the low-90s with mostly sunny skies expected.
Tuesday – even hotter, and more humid than today with high temperatures in the mid-90s with sunny skies.
Wednesday – yet another hot, oppressively humid day with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Both Tuesday and Wednesday should see heat index values above 100°F due to high dew point values as well.
Thursday – a cold front is forecast to push through the area Thursday. Along and ahead of this front, we are expecting the chance for some scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given the ample moisture available and hot temperatures. Temperatures will still be hot, in the low-90s, before this frontal boundary passes through. Behind this cold front, temperatures will be 10-15°F cooler Friday into the weekend.
Enjoy the pleasant weather today if you can, because conditions will deteriorate going into the weekend. Wet weather will impact the NYC region starting tonight, lingering well into early next week. Rain could be heavy at times, and flash flooding is a possibility. Temperatures during this time will be considerably cooler than this past week with the influence of clouds and rain. We will be stuck under the influence of multiple shortwaves moving through at the upper level during this time. Starting next week, forecast models suggest that a closed 500 mb low will form, then linger in the area due to strong downstream ridging (high pressure) over the western North Atlantic. This cut-off upper level low will provide for persistent unstable conditions conducive for multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. I will be off the next two weeks on vacation and will not be posting updates unless there’s severe weather forecast for the area.
Rest of today – increasing clouds as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest but stalls out and dissipates overnight. High temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase overnight.
Saturday – multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, starting early in the day, then again in the afternoon and evening hours. Much cooler with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures only in the mid-70s. The cold front that passed through yesterday will return north as a warm front. Ahead of this, winds will be easterly and onshore, bringing the cool, damp influence of the Atlantic over the area.
Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s but still mostly cloudy. Chances for rain throughout the day as the frontal boundary above remains in the area.
Monday – yet another impulse of shortwave energy aloft brings a surface low towards the area, so rain chances persist with a shot for thunderstorms as well. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s.
This week starts off with a heat wave, with high temperatures expected to top 90°F up through Wednesday. A chance or showers and thunderstorms Wednesday will not bring too much in the way of relief from the heat and humidity. The air mass behind the cold front moving in Wednesday is only slightly cooler and less humid than the one in place now.
Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-mid 90s.
Tuesday – more of the same, hot, humid weather with highs in the low-90s. A chance exists for some scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day.
Wednesday – more organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass though late in the day Wednesday and overnight into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. High temperatures ahead of the front are expected to be in the low-90s again.
Thursday – a chance for leftover a shower or thunderstorm exists early, then improving conditions with high temperatures in the upper-80s and mostly sunny skies.
Friday – looking sunny now, with highs in the upper-80s.
A wet start to the weekend will then give way to much warmer weather. We’ll get a break from the rain Sunday and Monday before the next shot for rain. Of note, a possible tornado may have impacted parts of northern Queens last night.
Rest of today – increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the early afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Saturday – more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the morning, with some concern for flash flooding. The set up also could produce some isolated severe weather as a weak impulse of energy travels up the upper trough that’s been locked in over the Eastern US this week. Improving conditions later with highs in the mid-80s.
Sunday – the upper trough that’s been causing this week’s wet weather finally exits east. High pressure begins to build south of us, bringing warmer temperatures with highs in the low-90s and lots of sun.
Monday – more of the same as Sunday, sunny, hot and humid with highs in the low-90s.
Possible Tornado in Northern Queens Last Night
At 10:18 last night, residents in northern Queens, the eastern Bronx and northern Nassau received alerts from our local National Weather Service forecast office of a tornado warning. The damage was evident this morning, with many downed trees in College Point. A team from the NWS is assessing the damage to determine whether what hit this area last night was really a tornado, or if it was some other non-tornadic wind phenomena.
I was in a neighborhood that received this warning, but at first, I almost thought it was in error because there were no signs outside of anything awry, no thunder, no rain. However, a quick look at the base radial velocity imagery on the JFK high-definition terminal Doppler radar was revealing – there certainly was a storm with very strong rotation, hence why the warning notes “radar indicated tornado”. In the annotated base radial velocity image below, the white circle indicates a tight mesocyclonic circulation.
Without going too much into technical detail, the greens indicate inbound velocities relative to the radar station (air was flowing towards the radar), while oranges and reds indicate outbound velocities (where air was flowing away from the radar). When forecasters see a “velocity couplet” like this where inbound and outbound velocities are close together, they know this is a signature of strong storm rotation within a mesocyclone. If, within this couplet, you get a “gate to gate” (i.e. adjacent pixels) where the difference between inbound and outbound velocities exceed 90 knots, this is referred to as a “tornado vortex signature”. In this image, if you do the math, you get that the max difference between inbound and outbound velocities was 86 knots, and you an see what appears to be a tornado vortex signature.
We’ll see what the NWS’ assessment says later today, but it appears to me that there was a tornado at some point over northern Queens last night!
UPDATE (1:46PM August 3, 2018): The National Weather Service issued a report confirming that an EF0 tornado touched down in portions of College Point, Queens last night.
