Tag Archives: hurricane arthur

Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 4, 2014 @ 6PM EDT

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Hurricane Arthur is still being analyzed by National Hurricane Center as packing winds of 80mph. Although the inner core is still very symmetrical, you can see that the overall storm is beginning to lose some symmetry. In addition, central pressure has risen a couple millibar since earlier today, indicating the storm is continuing to weaken.

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There’s still plenty of rain in store for Southeastern New England, though, as a couple bands of heavy rain are still moving their way onshore. The worst of the storm is yet to come, with the center of Arthur forecast to make its closest pass to this portion of the country in the next couple hours. Overnight, tropical storm conditions are likely over portions of Eastern Cape Cod.

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Weekend Weather, Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 4, 2014 @ 10AM EDT

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As of 9AM EDT, Hurricane Arthur has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity as a Category 2, and sustained winds have declined to 90mph. However, its eye is still clearly visible, and as you can see below, the storm is maintaining a symmetrical appearance with good outflow in all quadrants, meaning this is still quite a powerful storm. As Arthur continues moving northeast, it is expected to weaken rapidly upon entering much cooler waters and with increasing vertical shear from the codl front seen below.
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Track Forecast

Forecast models are in very close agreement about Arthur’s track over the next 12 hours or so. As you see below, they are tightly clustered around the 40N, 70W benchmark. Hence, forecast reasoning has not changed much since yesterday night. Arthur is expected to continue its northeast track and speed up under the influence of the cold front depicted above, moving offshore of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes as it makes extratropical transition.

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What This Means for Us

As expected, Arthur will be bringing multiple rounds of rain to the entire Northeast over the course of the day today. You can already see Arthur’s outer rain bands on our regional radar (you’d see it in the standard 124 nautical mile radar, but I’ve inserted an image of 248 nautical mile range radar image to see the storm better). As Arthur accelerates and makes its closest pass to this part of the country, we’ll see repeated bands of rain moving on shore. You can expect periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, interspersed with some dry spells under cloudy skies.

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The Rest of the Weekend

Once Arthur and the cold front clear the Northeast, we will see a return to a spectacular weekend with high pressure building back in. Sunny skies, mild, and dry conditions will prevail across the entire region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. As the high pressure moves to our southeast, we’ll see a return flow from the backside of the high pressure ushering in another warm, humid airmass for the beginning of next week.

 

Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 3, 2014

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Hurricane Arthur has held steady with 90mph winds over the last 6 hours or so. The storm’s eye continues to grow more defined, with central pressure continuing to fall to 977mb. These signs point to further strengthening, and the National Hurricane Center is still forecasting Arthur to hit Category 2 strength as it makes its closest pass over North Carolina.

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Track Forecast

Over the course of the day, Arthur has moved further north than originally forecast, and is only slowly beginning to make its turn towards the northeast. As a result, most forecast models have been pushed a bit further to the west. Most of the models now have Arthur making landfall somewhere over coastal North Carolina, and then passing inside the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast. The bottom line is that the updated forecast track increases the likelihood of adverse impacts to coastal areas all along the East Coast. This includes high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous riptides even in areas that don’t see direct impacts. This new track also puts portions of Southeastern New England under risk of experiencing tropical storm conditions, and heavy rain bands from Arthur as it passes offshore.

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It’s a good thing that mandatory evacuations were placed for the Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina, as portions of these low-lying areas are forecast to experience storm surge inundation of greater than 3 feet during the peak of the storm.

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Blue shaded areas = 1-3′ of storm surge Yellow areas = between 3-6′ of storm surge

NYC Weekend Weather – Hurricane Arthur – Jul 3, 2014

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Lots going on in the realm of weather over the coming weekend. First, to start off with today, the Storm Prediction Center has again placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. We could see a repeat of the type of storms from last night as a cold front makes its approach from the west. Even though temperatures are lower today and sunlight limited, there’s still more than enough instability in the atmosphere to fuel a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Because we’re looking at another round of possibly torrential rain from today’s storms, many areas are under a flash flood watch. Part of this moisture is due to the influence of Hurricane Arthur to our south.Untitled3

Hurricane Arthur

As of this morning, Arthur strengthened into the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s first hurricane and is currently sitting offshore of South Carolina with sustained winds of about 90mph. Forecasters are increasingly confident that Arthur will have enough time over warm water and low wind shear areas to grow into a Category 2 storm before getting recurved out to sea and making extratropical transition.

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Track Forecast for Hurricane Arthur

Arthur is now forecast to brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime later today, and move to just about the 40N, 70W benchmark offshore of the Northeast by 8PM Friday. Given this current forecast track, confidence is increasing that we’ll continue to see heavy rain and showers through out Friday into Friday night, though not directly from Arthur itself. Rather, Arthur will be interacting with that cold front mentioned above to throw a wrench in everyone’s July 4th plans. Conditions should begin to improve rapidly Saturday as Arthur accelerates northeast, pushed by the cold front. We should see a return to sunny skies and seasonable weather Saturday with highs around the low 80s. Of particular concern are areas in Southeastern New England, which could see tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning. Any deviation westward of this current forecast track would mean increased impacts on the Northeast, so this storm is worth watching closely. Regardless, high surface and dangerous riptides will be present on all Atlantic shorelines.

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