March ends on rainy note. It’s been a cooler and wetter month than average, after a much warmer February. The snow and rain has made significant positive impacts on the drought in this region. We get one good day this weekend, before more rain moves in to start the first week of April.
Rest of today – overcast, periods of rain, heavy at times due to a slow moving low pressure center. The heavier rains look to come later this evening into the overnight hours. Easterly and northeasterly winds will make it feel cooler than the high of around 40ºF.
Saturday – due to the slow pace of this storm, rain is still likely to be falling early tomorrow. High temperatures will remain well below normal due to the continued onshore easterly winds and cloud cover, only reaching the mid-40s.
Sunday – with the low pressure center finally exiting east, we should see dramatically improved conditions with highs rebounding to normal levels in the mid-50s and lots of sunshine.
Monday – starts off similar to Sunday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-50s. Conditions deteriorate later in the day as the next storm system starts moving in.
Average Temperatures, Above Average Precipitation to Start April
Due to the influence of several storm systems forecast to impact the area, we’re expecting normal temperatures and above average precipitation to start the month off.
Active weather pattern to start the week brings us multiple chances for rain. Things settle down mid-week, but another chance for rain comes up late week and into the weekend. Beneficial rains and the snow from the last Nor’easter has put a significant dent in drought conditions area wide. It looks like we’ve turned the corner legitimately towards spring with average to above-average temperatures expected for the foreseeable future.
Rest of today – rain tapering off by the early afternoon. Some clearing possible later. High temperatures in the mid-upper 50s.
Tuesday – mild, high temperatures around 60°F, slight chance for rain lingers throughout the day with a cold front approaching from the west.
Wednesday – rain is likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as this cold front moves through. On Wendesday itself, after the cold front pushes through, gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected with clouds breaking and a high in the mid-upper 50s.
Thursday – best day out of the week with high temperatures right around average in the low-50s and plenty of sunshine.
Temperature, Precipitation Trends and Drought Update
Over the course of the next week to week and a half, we’re expected to see average to slightly above average temperatures along with slightly above average rainfall. This bodes well for the overall drought situation which has seen marked improvement since the region received significant snowfall from the last Nor’easter and winter storm.
The track of the imminent nor’easter and blizzard has continue to trend west of earlier model runs. This has introduced increasing uncertainty as to overall snowfall totals along the immediate coastal areas along with possible wintry mix/freezing rain. On the other hand, confidence is increasing in heavy snow for areas north and west of the city, with snowfall totals 18″+ looking likely.
Impacts – heavy snow north and west of the city, snowfall accumulations in the interior 16-20″+ looking likely. Sharp gradient in the heaviest snowfall totals approaching the coast where wintry mix, freezing rain, and even plain rain could mix in during the early afternoon Tuesday. The exact location of the extent of warm air intrusion off the ocean will ultimately determine the difference between routine totals over 1 foot and areas that receive much lower snowfall totals. The difference in some cases could be a matter of mere miles. This line could fall in and around NYC itself. Still expecting a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions for NYC during the course of this storm even if a transition to mixed precipitation does occur. Snowfall totals could still pile up close to a foot or over prior to this transition. The possibility of freezing rain and ice introduces an additional hazard on the roads and when coupled with strong winds of 30-35mph and gusts 45mph+ could result in power outages.
Timing – light snow should begin to fall early into the overnight hours, progressively growing in intensity. In the city, overnight accumulations of 3-6″ possible, with a sharp increase in totals north and west. Heavy snow with sleet and wintry mix during the morning and early afternoon in the city, all snow in points north and west. Blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible. Snow begins to wind down during the evening hours.
Caveats – any further movement of the storm track west would result in drastically lower snowfall totals for NYC and points east along the coast. Correspondingly, an eastward shift of the storm track would put NYC itself squarely in the bullseye for the heaviest snows.
Classic major nor’easter to bring blizzard conditions to a large swath of the Northeast Tuesday just days from the official start of spring. Areas in and around NYC likely to see snowfall accumulations of over 1 foot, locally higher. This may end up being one of the biggest snowstorms/blizzards in history for the month of March in NYC.
Rest of today – the proverbial calm before the storm. Mostly sunny, cold, with high temperatures in the low-30s.
Tuesday – a major late season nor’easter will bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the area. Blizzard warning in effect for the entirety of Tuesday. Snow starts falling overnight into Tuesday. Heaviest snows forecast to begin around the morning rush and continue through most of the day. Blizzard conditions expected on the coast with steady north to northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts over 45mph. Visibility near zero at times. High temperatures at or below freezing. Widespread accumulations over 1 foot and approaching or exceeding 18″ expected around the NYC metro area. Details on the storm at the end of this post.
Wednesday – lingering chance for snow showers early with wrap around moisture on the backside of the departing nor’easter. Mostly cloudy with a high near freezing.
Thursday – skies clearing, high temperatures in the low-mid 30s.
Major Blizzard to Impact the NYC Region
Winter Storm Stella, as the Weather Channel refers to it, is set to bring widespread heavy snow to the area beginning overnight Monday and continuing throughout the day Tuesday.
Impacts – Snow accumulations over 1 foot, in many cases approaching 18″. Locally higher amounts, with some areas possibly approaching 2 feet. Heavy snow and blowing snow during the day Tuesday. Snowfall rates 2-4″ per hour and possibly higher in the heaviest snow bands possible. Thundersnow may accompany the strongest snow bands. Blowing and drifting snow with steady northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts 45-50mph will contribute to blizzard conditions with near zero visibility at times. East and northeast facing shorelines may experience moderate coastal flooding during high tide cycles. Heavy, wet snow at the coast combined with high winds may lead to power outages. Hazardous travel conditions, severe disruptions to aviation likely. High confidence in storm total snowfall at this point, but there is still uncertainty about whether and where mixing could occur.
Timing – Snow begins early in the overnight hours Tuesday. Light accumulations of 2-4″ possible by daybreak. Heavy snow likely beginning during the morning rush hour and continuing through most of the work day, as well as into the evening rush hour. Winds quickly intensifying from the morning and staying steady through the evening hours. Heaviest snow tapers off in the early evening hours, but snow showers could continue overnight. Winds remain strong overnight into Wednesday. Conditions improve going into the morning Wednesday.
Discussion – an area of low pressure that had its origins in the Pacific has made its way across the northern US, impacting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with snow. This storm system will phase with a secondary, coastal low pressure system that is currently moving up the coast from the Southeast. As these storms merge, the coastal low will undergo rapid intensification and cyclogenesis, becoming a strong Nor’easter. This storm will be drawing on subtropical moisture, and will encounter an airmass that will be quite cold due to the presence of an Arctic high pressure system prior to the storm’s passage. These ingredients will set the stage for a classic major blizzard for the Northeast late in the winter season, only days from spring.
As always, uncertainty remains about the exact location of the heaviest snow bands with this storm. Areas that are impacted by these bands can easily rack up several more inches than surrounding areas that are spared. The storm is expected to track west of the 40°N/70°W benchmark. However, during the last model runs, the storm track has trended north and west, increasing the chances for the city itself to see the heaviest snow, in addition to areas north and west. If this track shifts west some more, warmer air off the ocean wrapping into the core of the storm from the south could induce mixed precipitation with rain cutting down on totals in the city and Long Island. If the track shifts east, heavier snow would fall over points east of the city.
Above average temperatures today give way to accumulating snow Friday. Very cold air then rushes in for the weekend, much along the lines of last weekend. This time around, cold air will persist, as a polar vortex is set to take hold of the East Coast. With this cold air in place, there is potential for a significant snowstorm in the form of a Nor’easter/coastal storm early to mid-week next week.
Rest of today – quite warm still with high temperatures remaining steady around the mid-50s. Breezy with west wind between 15-20mph under clear skies. Increasing clouds towards nightfall.
Friday – a rain/snow mix is anticipated to begin falling overnight, steadily transitioning to all snow by daybreak. This looks to be a messy commute. A cold front slides south of the area and a strengthening low pressure center moves along this frontal boundary, bringing us this snow. Due to warm temperatures in preceding days, snow will have a hard time sticking at first, but temperatures will remain cold enough throughout this event to yield likely snow accumulations of 3-5″.
Saturday – temperatures will remain well below normal as winds shift to the northwest following the passage of the cold front and storm system above. Breezy with winds around 15-20mph and decreasing clouds. High temperatures will struggle to hit freezing. Overnight lows leading into Saturday and then overnight into Sunday only in the teens.
Sunday – cold, sunny, with high temperature again barely at or above freezing. Spring forward occurs early Sunday, set your clocks ahead and get ready for more sunshine late in the day (not that it’ll help make things warmer right now).
Winter Not Giving Up – Possible Snowstorm Next Week
The predominant weather pattern thus far this winter has been one in which the jet stream has taken on an orientation that favors above average warmth over the eastern half of the US. Just as we turn the corner towards spring, it appears we are about to get slammed with a polar vortex and weather pattern more typical of February. While the cold itself will be enough to put a damper on spring, the real headline is the possibility for a significant late-season snowstorm in the form of a Nor’easter some time early to mid-week next week. Will keep you all updated on this as more data becomes available in the coming days.
The week starts off with a thaw from the Arctic cold we experienced over the weekend. We settle into a familiar pattern of a warm front then cold front passage that will see temperatures swing up into the low-60s mid-week before dropping back to seasonable levels towards the late week period.4
Rest of today – mostly sunny, with winds now shifting to the south, high temperatures should reach into the low-40s.
Tuesday – much warmer with high temperatures in the mid-50s, mostly cloudy with a chance for rain due to a cold front approaching. Rain chances increase heading towards the overnight hours.
Wednesday – rain tapering off early, then conditions improving to mostly sunny. High temperatures still forecast to reach the low-60s before the cold front actually passes through.
Thursday – temperatures fall back into the mid-upper 40s behind the cold front with mostly sunny skies.
Return to Normal Temperatures to Last
Looking ahead, it appears in the medium term that temperatures will moderate into seasonable mid-40s or lower and stay that way until late in the month. We could see a couple more shots at accumulating snow during this stretch.
The record breaking warmth of only a couple days ago seems like ancient history. We could see some snow flurries to kick off the weekend, then a very cold airmass takes hold with temperatures well below normal. Another warm up is in store to start next week.
Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies to start. High temperatures near 40°F. Later in the day, and into the evening hours, an arctic front is forecast to pass through. Snow showers are anticipated to accompany this frontal boundary, though they should not result in any appreciable accumulation.
Saturday – behind the passage of this arctic front, winds shift to the northwest and pick up into the 15-25mph range, with stronger gusts. High temperatures will struggle to top freezing even with lots of sun, as overnight lows will be around 20°F. Wind chills will be in the teens or lower.
Sunday – overnight into Sunday, low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens. Sunny conditions prevail, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-30s.
Monday – a warm front will push through, finally breaking the spell of very cold weather. Temperatures should warm up into the upper-40s to near 50°F as clouds increase.
